Bottoms CAN be picked

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ProfitTakgFool

Conventional wisdom states something to the effect of, "It's impossible to pick the exact bottoms of the market." While I agree it is difficult, I couldn't disagree more that it's impossible. Still in the last one. That one was a gift.
 

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In my own trading, what I have found out is that you CAN pick bottoms and tops, but you are only going to be correct about 30% of the time. So, instead of picking tops and bottoms, you are going to have a MUCH better chance for a profitable trade by going along with the trend, and expecting it to continue.

Just my two centavos.
 
I hear ya Div Arb, different strokes for different folks. I just do what works for me and I have a much harder time picking tops than I do bottoms. I can just smell out the fear at bottoms but it's hard to judge the exictement/greed at tops.

Quote from Div_Arb:

In my own trading, what I have found out is that you CAN pick bottoms and tops, but you are only going to be correct about 30% of the time. So, instead of picking tops and bottoms, you are going to have a MUCH better chance for a profitable trade by going along with the trend, and expecting it to continue.

Just my two centavos.
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is this discretionary or automated? I've been trying to figure out your strat PFool, no luck yet (well, nothing wtih a decent avg gain per trade/tradable with slppage + comm). But your posts sometimes give me ideas to backtest so I'l keep trying!!
 
Quote from ProfitTakgFool:

Conventional wisdom states something to the effect of, "It's impossible to pick the exact bottoms of the market." While I agree it is difficult, I couldn't disagree more that it's impossible. Still in the last one. That one was a gift.
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Nice Chart, I assume that the blue dots don't repaint or move, correct?

In my methodology, all I trade is "turns/reversals".
I can do momentum plays if I get bored, but I'd rather do reversals :)
 
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