Bottom in?
- Thread starter misterkel
- Start date
I think the downturn is just starting as it wasn't just a one bar mishap (flash crash). Could be the tax cuts were already priced in before the last up leg. At best it's going to be ranging.
I'd like to see SPX 200ma tested @ 2530-ish during RTH for a possible "bottom is in" play. If that were to happen, we'd have a "2x/matched low with the ES.. and perhaps a "mini-'87 crash" price formation to play.
I agree. Look for multiple tests of a major support level before getting long again. I have been standing aside on both the long and short side this whole week.
It's too hilarious when people start asking where the bottom is ...cnbc has been running there pathetic markets in turmoil segment the last few days...what amazes me is the markets have run up non stop for 9 years... nearly a damn decade and now the markets turn down for literally a single week and everyone wants to know where the bottom is...come onnnnnnnn ....at least bring in the bear and a 20+ correction so everyone can get an actual taste of it... especially all these new investors who believe stocks only go one way ...don't be surprised by a steeper drop of another 20-30%.....markets need a wake call from the fantasy make believe land they have been in for the last decade....but no worries the fed will be coming to the rescue like they always do!!
But I called a bottom when I thought "we might go down as far as 2700 on Monday"....
Well, yah, Tom, we done and did that.
Then I thought, "Well! If we taste 2600, hit the "Buy!" button."
Done that. Shorted the t-shirt.
Scat -- I think we hit 2525 in the ES. But I think the 200 is moving up so fast..... It seems a very likely "Buy!" trigger.
Long story short? I always go with fundamentals. And the boring ol' p/e.
("Oh you are Old School...!")
Yes I am. Yes I am.
And while I'd like to see a 16 p/e (ttm), I'd be a buyer now -- dollar-cost averaged and all that, even. I certainly wouldn't sell -- barring unforeseeable Black Swans, we'll be back here in (long run) "no time at all."
(Ask yourself two questions:
How are things going, in the U.S., and around the world, right now?
{"Swimmingly!"}
Would you be surprised to see the SPX climb 100pts *today*?
{"No-ooooo."}
Interest rates matter. But so do fundamentals that are even *more* foundational than interest rates (why bother to borrow, unless you can make/sell and make money?).
I'm a buyer at 2580.
I would NOT flip if we breached 2500 in the next week, though -- I'd buy more.
Lastly: The NYSE TRIN has been in a very controlled, very reasonable range these last few days -- NOT something that screams "Sell at any price!!!" by any means. That size agenda is very hard to hide -- what the TRIN shows to me is calm and calculated.
Oops. I posted this in cryptocurrencies, so I thought it would be more obvious!
I meant is the bottom in for Cryptos?
Screw it, man! Go with whatchu got!
