Bottom-Fisher 10/19
- Thread starter TonyOz
- Start date
@TonyOz
Great, that you started this thread - that's what I was looking for - it's far better to read about this trades the day after you have done some of them yourself - and what mistakes you may have made.
The biggest winner for me today was ZRAN - but I was shaken out two times with small losses bofore this third winner. My problem is that I don't want to take such wide stops, so I try to time my entry so I can take a tight stop - in days like Wednesday this is great, yesterday and today until 1pm it was a desaster (I guess I have to learn a lot more about intraday support/resistance and L2) and in the afternoon I had some big winners.
Do you think it is a mistak not to use wide stops (say under the low of the day before) in these markets - is it possible to use different stop strategies in different market environments ?
One more winner in the afternoon were BBBY and HCR. Loosers have been AET, ZRAN (in the morning), WFMI (afternoon) and ESRX (!!!) (in the morning).
I was down at midday that I thought about stopping for today - luckily I dod not and did stick to my strategy. But I wonder if I make a mistake about the stops. Another point is that I enter trades too early in the morning (because I do not want to miss a big move, as many of these stocks do their moves in the morning, as I have written before - just my opinion - unless the market moves that big in the afternoon of course). How do you react to these different market conditions (on Wednesday it helped me great to take trades that early).
Hope you do not mind this lenghty post with so much question.
Harry
Great, that you started this thread - that's what I was looking for - it's far better to read about this trades the day after you have done some of them yourself - and what mistakes you may have made.
The biggest winner for me today was ZRAN - but I was shaken out two times with small losses bofore this third winner. My problem is that I don't want to take such wide stops, so I try to time my entry so I can take a tight stop - in days like Wednesday this is great, yesterday and today until 1pm it was a desaster (I guess I have to learn a lot more about intraday support/resistance and L2) and in the afternoon I had some big winners.
Do you think it is a mistak not to use wide stops (say under the low of the day before) in these markets - is it possible to use different stop strategies in different market environments ?
One more winner in the afternoon were BBBY and HCR. Loosers have been AET, ZRAN (in the morning), WFMI (afternoon) and ESRX (!!!) (in the morning).
I was down at midday that I thought about stopping for today - luckily I dod not and did stick to my strategy. But I wonder if I make a mistake about the stops. Another point is that I enter trades too early in the morning (because I do not want to miss a big move, as many of these stocks do their moves in the morning, as I have written before - just my opinion - unless the market moves that big in the afternoon of course). How do you react to these different market conditions (on Wednesday it helped me great to take trades that early).
Hope you do not mind this lenghty post with so much question.
Harry
Sorry to repeat if it has been mentioned before but another way of finding Tony's Bottom Fisher plays might be at...
http://stockcharts.com/
I see two nice ones there right now. Under scanning for Three Black Crows.
Good trading.
~EC
http://stockcharts.com/
I see two nice ones there right now. Under scanning for Three Black Crows.
Good trading.
~EC
El cam...post those URL's! I 'd like to see those Black Crow setups. Thanks.
First, I'd like to clarify that the purpose of this thread was to show some of the different Bottom-Fisher setups that took place today. Then, to show my screening through the results and which trades I would and would not take and why. These are not buy recommendations for Monday
Answers
dufferdon,
How big a gap will you tolerate at the open to enter immediately? How do you handle those that show bigger gaps.
Excellent question. Normally when I see them gap up slightly it is a good indication that a squeeze may be on early in the day. I will enter immediately and place a stop below the days low according to my reward/risk ratio.
If the gap is significant, the trade will not answer to reward/risk ratio and i will just not enter it.
How big is significant? It is all relative to the stock, the pattern and the market - and of course risk Vs. Reward . A big gap can have immediate profit taking, so one must be careful. So if it is to big for YOU or ME then we WAIT. If it is reasonable then by all mean we will load them shares up
praetorian2,
Look at my great new pattern thread. This is the pattern I play exclusively. Look at pvn as an example today.
I am happy someone else is also trading this pattern Not familiar with this thread, but I have been trading this pattern with Real-Time scans for over 5 years. PVN was not on my list because it is under my MINIMUM price criteria, and also it was down today and not up. So, actually it is not a bottom fisher setup yet. Although I have been one of the pioneers to trade this setup in real-time based on a real-time scan, I am sure I did not invent it and am not taking credit for it.
Harry,
Do you think it is a mistak not to use wide stops (say under the low of the day before) in these markets - is it possible to use different stop strategies in different market environments ?
It comes down to time frame, reward/risk ratio, and comfort level. The examples I have on www.tonyoz.com/bottom.htm show stops based on low of day and intraday support. There are more examples on pages 187-191. Ultimately, it will have to be a strategy that fits your trading style On pages 87-91, you can see my preferred entry and exit points based on the intraday chart.
El Caz,
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan?s=TSA[t.t_eq_s]![t.e_eq_n]![as0,20,tv_gt_40000]![wo_eq_1] shows three stocks. It had nine the night before of which some went down further and actually set a doji, but the problem is that they are not on the watch list tonight because they had 4 days down. My scanner will find these stocks in Real-Time. Never the less, this is a great source for a potential Bottom-Fisher setup the next day for those who do not have access to scanning software. Thanks for posting the link
Trade Smart!
Answers
dufferdon,
How big a gap will you tolerate at the open to enter immediately? How do you handle those that show bigger gaps.
Excellent question. Normally when I see them gap up slightly it is a good indication that a squeeze may be on early in the day. I will enter immediately and place a stop below the days low according to my reward/risk ratio.
If the gap is significant, the trade will not answer to reward/risk ratio and i will just not enter it.
How big is significant? It is all relative to the stock, the pattern and the market - and of course risk Vs. Reward . A big gap can have immediate profit taking, so one must be careful. So if it is to big for YOU or ME then we WAIT. If it is reasonable then by all mean we will load them shares up
praetorian2,
Look at my great new pattern thread. This is the pattern I play exclusively. Look at pvn as an example today.
I am happy someone else is also trading this pattern
Not familiar with this thread, but I have been trading this pattern with Real-Time scans for over 5 years. PVN was not on my list because it is under my MINIMUM price criteria, and also it was down today and not up. So, actually it is not a bottom fisher setup yet. Although I have been one of the pioneers to trade this setup in real-time based on a real-time scan, I am sure I did not invent it and am not taking credit for it. Harry,
Do you think it is a mistak not to use wide stops (say under the low of the day before) in these markets - is it possible to use different stop strategies in different market environments ?
It comes down to time frame, reward/risk ratio, and comfort level. The examples I have on www.tonyoz.com/bottom.htm show stops based on low of day and intraday support. There are more examples on pages 187-191. Ultimately, it will have to be a strategy that fits your trading style
On pages 87-91, you can see my preferred entry and exit points based on the intraday chart. El Caz,
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan?s=TSA[t.t_eq_s]![t.e_eq_n]![as0,20,tv_gt_40000]![wo_eq_1] shows three stocks. It had nine the night before of which some went down further and actually set a doji, but the problem is that they are not on the watch list tonight because they had 4 days down. My scanner will find these stocks in Real-Time. Never the less, this is a great source for a potential Bottom-Fisher setup the next day for those who do not have access to scanning software. Thanks for posting the link
Trade Smart!
Tony, I have seemed to have the best success in percentage terms on the under 5 dollar crowd. If pvn pops to 7 or so, I make 40% on the trade. That's only a 2 point move, and quite doable in my opinion as the stock feels very sold out. Look at gx recently as an example of a stock that went up 500% from an oversold condition. I regret only taking the first 100% move and selling for a nice gain. I have also found that with a bit of skill, and some dumb luck, you can usually buy on the day of the bottom and catch the bottom within about a quarter point, rather than waiting for a green bar and missing the beginning of the move. I have been working now for a few days on an algorithem that will calculate almost exactly when the stock has bottomed (this excludes stop hosers and mm tricks of course). It signaled that pvn had bottomed at around 5.05.
I honestly don't know if pvn has indeed bottomed. I have lost more money on this one stock than most other stocks combined in the last year, and I had a NO PVN rule for a while as a result, so don't trust my judgement on this one. I just like how a moc sell imballance became a sharp spike up. Someone took out that imballance. I also like how it was accumulated all day at just over 5, then in the last 20 mins, they blew the stops, and then it ran. I only have 10k that I bought moc however.
I honestly don't know if pvn has indeed bottomed. I have lost more money on this one stock than most other stocks combined in the last year, and I had a NO PVN rule for a while as a result, so don't trust my judgement on this one. I just like how a moc sell imballance became a sharp spike up. Someone took out that imballance. I also like how it was accumulated all day at just over 5, then in the last 20 mins, they blew the stops, and then it ran. I only have 10k that I bought moc however.
P2, sorry to ask but what is "moc"? Good luck on PVN.
~EC
~EC