Continuity of price is a real problem for those who have trading experience. Beginners have little to no trouble with it. And candles just make it worse. I developed a sensitivity to it by using 1t charts. Technically, of course, and ironically, tick charts don't "flow". There are gaps all over the place. Trades are continuous without being contiguous, but I've never wanted to get into that. Unnecessarily confusing. But it is worth knowing that when one sees a plunge or rocket bar that the trades that make up that bar are seriously gapped. This means that there's a lot of air in the bar, which is why price so often slides right through it on the way back.
But line charts are also good, particularly when it comes to "overlap". I'd be interested in reading about your exercise. It would be useful as part of the Trading By Price stickie at TL. With attribution of course.
Gears attached a chart showing Part 1 of the exercise, and we'll get to 2 and 3 soon. I'll send you PM on Monday explaining it in a bit more detail.
There is a nice discussion between two bond traders - one who traded "upstairs," i.e. off a screen, and another who was "downstairs," i.e. on the floor in the pit. The pit trader, Tom Baldwin, gives a nice description of what is happening during those "seriously gapped bars" you discuss above:
Peter Borish: (Sarcastically) But, it opens @ 97. It says in the daily range that it’s from 97 to 98, how come after the number came out @ 97.04, I can’t filled @ 97.06? I want to buy a lot there!
Tom Baldwin: The reason you can’t is that is really not the market. At 7:29 am before the number comes out the market is at ‘x’ and then when the number comes out and its out of line, the actual market has a gap between where it eventually goes to and where it starts. And in between there is really nothing there because the market is now here. And most people are not accustomed to that jump and they are not aware that there is really nothing to trade there, unless it is by luck. i.e. there was resting order that happened to be there, doesn’t happen often. So you would never get filled at those prices. It would be very easy if when the number came out and you said gee that’s way out of line and it’s really bullish and I want to be long 1000 bonds, well the rest of the world is not stupid either and they see its out of line so they decide not to sell now. When it rallies a point then I’m going to sell it. Because that is where the market should go to based on that number. It’s like saying I wish I could buy 1000 bonds a point below market, but it’s not the market.
As to the "flow," this has been the most frustrating thing for me to explain to others. I remember back in your first SLA journal I posted a trade where price dropped out of a hinge soon after the open. My fill on the short was like 30.75. I posted the chart,
and I posted my IB blotter showing the executions. I got a PM from one of my "troll fans" at the time basically saying "How the hell do you expect me to believe you got filled at 30.75? The low of that [1 minute] bar was 29.75" (or whatever - I'm going from memory here).
I replied "What does that have to do with anything? The lower high at 31.50 was the signal to get short and so I did at 30.75."
"How did you
know that 31.50 was a lower high"
"Because price traded up to 32, then down to 30, then back up to 31.50. 31.50
is lower than 32. Hence, a lower high."
"But how did you
know price was going to continue dropping? How did you
know that 31.50 would be the lower high?"
"I didn't know that ... It was a lower high. I get short. I have no idea if it is going to continue lower or if I'm going to have to scratch it or take a loss."
"Fuckin' liar."
He was pissed because I wouldn't tell him how I
knew something that I did not and
could not know. I still can't tell you how I knew because I did not know. I never
know if a trade is going to do me plus or minus. But I know if I keep taking them at the extremes based on LH's and HL's, my account balance will go up. That I
know.
"How do you know ...?" is the wrong question, imo.
All price action related, Boru - nice journal, btw. Thank you for having us
