Quote from ByLoSellHi:
That's a fantastic, intelligent and really compelling response.
Your specific reference to the numbers cited in the original article is especially illuminating.
The one thing the oil bulls all seem to ignore are that actual numbers involved in the story of the supply/demand situation with crude oil.
It's almost as if they're avoiding the actual statistics intentionally.
As to my general thesis about the damage the (artificially high) price of oil is doing to the U.S. economy:
Direct quotes for Soros:
Soros laid some of the blame on recent oil price rises on commodity index funds, which only buy oil contracts, helping to push prices higher.
Not `Legitimate'
``Commodity indexes are not a legitimate asset class,'' he said. He added that raising margin requirements would not affect index trading but could function to limit speculation.
``The rise in oil prices aggravates the prospects for a recession.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aMUH3KgAlIfc&refer=home
But you're probably sharper than Soros. You're certainly more eloquent.
I agree with Soros there is some speculative demand in oil, probably $10-20 worth. However, for him to say that commodities are not a legitimate asset class is a pure personal opinion on his part. It is also extremely hypocritical - Soros has speculated on oil in both directions many times in the past. He has also speculated on the currencies of sovereign nations - if commodities are not a legitimate investment asset class, then currencies are not either.
So, considering that Soros's comment is hypocritical, pure personal opinion, disputed by a large swathe of the financial and academic world, and in any case totally irrelevant to whether or not funds have the right to invest in commodities, I don't really see it holding much sway.
Let us also not ignore Soros's comments that the oil price rise is mostly down to supply & demand factors other than speculation.