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Book Review; The Black Swan by Nicholas Nassim Taleb
- Thread starter hypostomus
- Start date
Can someone explain to me whats the definition of 'well-studied' when the probability distribution is not known?Its a bible. The world can change tomorrow just like has countless times before.
Quote from Equalizer:
Who knows what his fund was doing,
I believe this is the only tidbit in the public record: http://google.com/search?q="Creditors+of+Empirica+Kurtosis"
This transcript is from Taleb's interview on the Colbert Report. Taleb's "logic" falls apart under questioning by comedian, Stephen Colbert, but that was entirely Taleb's fault for overreaching.
Taleb: Take Google, September 911, the rise of the internet, Harry Potterâ¦They were unexpected and no one saw them coming, and after they happened, oh yah, it was so explainable by historians, scholars and academics, but before they happened, they were so unexpected. And guess what? These eventsâ¦they run the world.
[The internet was predicted in several publications in the 1980âs. Harry Potter â an event that runs the world?]
[Later]
Colbert: So you sayâ¦911 could not be predicted.
Taleb: It is very very hard to predict these events
[He probably never heard of the July 2001 intelligence report that stated that Bin Laden was determined to strike within the United States of almost identical title]
Colbert: â¦Iâm glad to hear that, because that means the 911 Commission was a waste of time. Because we shouldnât have investigated why it happend, right?
Taleb: You need you need [sic] to investigate to see if it is predicatable or notâ¦
Colbert: But why? Why investigate something that canât be predicted, because there is nothing to learn from it.
Taleb: No, after the fact, Okay, you have to look atâ¦uhâ¦first of all you can learn something from the event, itâs not like you canât learn at all.
Colbert: Okay
Taleb: But 911, 911, what Iâm saying is that its there is so many events like 911 that could have taken place, you see, so, its just to see if thereâs responsibility, is there any vigilance or no vigilance. This is why we investigated 911.
Colbert: ..Is Iraq a Black Swan? We couldnât have ever foreseen it would go poorly, we would never have known that was not going to go wellâ¦
Taleb: No, wars, wars, yah, listen, wars since Napolean [only since Napolean? This guy needs to learn some history]â¦we learned that warsâ¦wars are more and more unpredictable, more and more complex, the link between action and consequence becoming fuzzier, and I think that the war in Iraq was a mistakeâ¦we should have seen that it could have led to these dire consequences.
[Taleb tripped over his own hubris]
Colbert: We should have but we didnât, therefore we couldnât.
[More]
Colbert: It seems like youâre essentially saying the future is unpredictable.
Taleb: No, Iâm saying, yes, my idea in the book is to show two things: number one that the future is rather unpredictable, it is dominated by Black Swans and these black swans are not predictable, and the second point that is quite central, is that we humansâ¦all right?...try to concoct stories [like his 911 story, his Iraq story and his Napolean story] to convince ourselves that the future is more predictable than it actually isâ¦
Colbert: The future is essentially not predictable.
Taleb: Yes, itâs not.
Colbert: By that logic, doesnât it mean that in the future you will be able to predict things, because you are predicting that you cannot predict things?
Taleb: Take Google, September 911, the rise of the internet, Harry Potterâ¦They were unexpected and no one saw them coming, and after they happened, oh yah, it was so explainable by historians, scholars and academics, but before they happened, they were so unexpected. And guess what? These eventsâ¦they run the world.
[The internet was predicted in several publications in the 1980âs. Harry Potter â an event that runs the world?]
[Later]
Colbert: So you sayâ¦911 could not be predicted.
Taleb: It is very very hard to predict these events
[He probably never heard of the July 2001 intelligence report that stated that Bin Laden was determined to strike within the United States of almost identical title]
Colbert: â¦Iâm glad to hear that, because that means the 911 Commission was a waste of time. Because we shouldnât have investigated why it happend, right?
Taleb: You need you need [sic] to investigate to see if it is predicatable or notâ¦
Colbert: But why? Why investigate something that canât be predicted, because there is nothing to learn from it.
Taleb: No, after the fact, Okay, you have to look atâ¦uhâ¦first of all you can learn something from the event, itâs not like you canât learn at all.
Colbert: Okay
Taleb: But 911, 911, what Iâm saying is that its there is so many events like 911 that could have taken place, you see, so, its just to see if thereâs responsibility, is there any vigilance or no vigilance. This is why we investigated 911.
Colbert: ..Is Iraq a Black Swan? We couldnât have ever foreseen it would go poorly, we would never have known that was not going to go wellâ¦
Taleb: No, wars, wars, yah, listen, wars since Napolean [only since Napolean? This guy needs to learn some history]â¦we learned that warsâ¦wars are more and more unpredictable, more and more complex, the link between action and consequence becoming fuzzier, and I think that the war in Iraq was a mistakeâ¦we should have seen that it could have led to these dire consequences.
[Taleb tripped over his own hubris]
Colbert: We should have but we didnât, therefore we couldnât.
[More]
Colbert: It seems like youâre essentially saying the future is unpredictable.
Taleb: No, Iâm saying, yes, my idea in the book is to show two things: number one that the future is rather unpredictable, it is dominated by Black Swans and these black swans are not predictable, and the second point that is quite central, is that we humansâ¦all right?...try to concoct stories [like his 911 story, his Iraq story and his Napolean story] to convince ourselves that the future is more predictable than it actually isâ¦
Colbert: The future is essentially not predictable.
Taleb: Yes, itâs not.
Colbert: By that logic, doesnât it mean that in the future you will be able to predict things, because you are predicting that you cannot predict things?
Amazon posts may be worthless, but this fellow writes well, and his points are valid:
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
Don't insult my intelligence, June 27, 2007
By carbon cycle scientist (Baltimore, MD USA) - See all my reviews
Taleb's concept is certainly not his: "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" is as old as the Greek philosophers. And is something anyone who studies science should already know. It's one of the classic "logical fallacies".
That natural systems very often do NOT follow Gaussian distribution is something anyone who has taken intro stats should know.
That non-linear systems are common; that positive feedback loops exist in nature; these things we know.
Serious students of economics, physics, chemistry, climate, or biology may sometimes view the world through bell-curve tinted glasses. So remind us. But don't insult our intelligence by combining lack of originality with insufferable arrogance.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
Don't insult my intelligence, June 27, 2007
By carbon cycle scientist (Baltimore, MD USA) - See all my reviews
Taleb's concept is certainly not his: "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" is as old as the Greek philosophers. And is something anyone who studies science should already know. It's one of the classic "logical fallacies".
That natural systems very often do NOT follow Gaussian distribution is something anyone who has taken intro stats should know.
That non-linear systems are common; that positive feedback loops exist in nature; these things we know.
Serious students of economics, physics, chemistry, climate, or biology may sometimes view the world through bell-curve tinted glasses. So remind us. But don't insult our intelligence by combining lack of originality with insufferable arrogance.
Taleb's strategy doesn't seem to ever have worked for him in practice. I am not sure what he was trying to communicate at this conference, but it seems he wanted the audience to be fooled by shamlessness.
According to Taleb:
Empirica LLC, which owns interests in hedge funds, and operates a research laboratory in London, Empirica Laboratory Limited, and a Hedging operation (no, it is not a "hedge fund" in the common accepted sense as the bulk of the business consists in portfolio protection packages. We only called it a HF in May-October 2001).
http://battleofthequants.com/panelists.html
According to publicly available information on the internet:
http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache...f+Empirica+Kurtosis"&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us
EMPIRICA KURTOSIS: To Proceed with Voluntary Wind-Up
----------------------------------------------------
IN THE MATTER OF THE COMPANIES ACT 1981
and
IN THE MATTER OF Empirica Kurtosis Limited
The following Resolutions of Empirica Kurtosis Limited, were
adopted by the sole Member by written consent on December 2,
2004:
1. that the Company be wound up voluntarily pursuant to the
provisions of The Companies Act, 1981; and
2. that Nicholas Hoskins be appointed Liquidator for the
purposes of such winding-up, such appointment to be effective
forthwith.
The Liquidator reports that:
- Creditors of Empirica Kurtosis Limited, which is being
voluntarily wound up, are required, on or before December 30,
2004 to send their full Christian and Surnames, their addresses
and descriptions, full particulars of their debts or claims, and
the names and addresses of their attorneys (if any) to the
undersigned Liquidator of the said Company at Wakefield Quin,
Chancery Hall, 52 Reid Street, Hamilton, Bermuda and if so
required by notice in writing from the said Liquidator, and
personally or by their attorneys, to come in and prove their
debts or claims at such time and place as shall be specified in
such notice, or in default thereof they will be excluded from
the benefit of any distribution made before such debts are
proved.
- A Final General Meeting of the Members of Empirica Kurtosis
Limited will be held at the offices of Wakefield Quin, Chancery
Hall, 52 Reid Street, Hamilton, Bermuda on January 7, 2005 at
10:00 a.m., or soon as possible thereafter, for the purposes of:
having an account laid before them showing the manner in which
the winding-up has been conducted and how the property of the
Company has been disposed of and of hearing any explanation that
may be given by the Liquidator; determining by Resolution the
manner in which the books, accounts and documents of the Company
and of the Liquidator thereof, shall be disposed of; and by
Resolution dissolving the Company.
CONTACT: Mr. Nicholas Hoskins, Trustee
Chancery Hall
52 Reid Street
Hamilton, Bermuda
According to Taleb:
Empirica LLC, which owns interests in hedge funds, and operates a research laboratory in London, Empirica Laboratory Limited, and a Hedging operation (no, it is not a "hedge fund" in the common accepted sense as the bulk of the business consists in portfolio protection packages. We only called it a HF in May-October 2001).
http://battleofthequants.com/panelists.html
According to publicly available information on the internet:
http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache...f+Empirica+Kurtosis"&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us
EMPIRICA KURTOSIS: To Proceed with Voluntary Wind-Up
----------------------------------------------------
IN THE MATTER OF THE COMPANIES ACT 1981
and
IN THE MATTER OF Empirica Kurtosis Limited
The following Resolutions of Empirica Kurtosis Limited, were
adopted by the sole Member by written consent on December 2,
2004:
1. that the Company be wound up voluntarily pursuant to the
provisions of The Companies Act, 1981; and
2. that Nicholas Hoskins be appointed Liquidator for the
purposes of such winding-up, such appointment to be effective
forthwith.
The Liquidator reports that:
- Creditors of Empirica Kurtosis Limited, which is being
voluntarily wound up, are required, on or before December 30,
2004 to send their full Christian and Surnames, their addresses
and descriptions, full particulars of their debts or claims, and
the names and addresses of their attorneys (if any) to the
undersigned Liquidator of the said Company at Wakefield Quin,
Chancery Hall, 52 Reid Street, Hamilton, Bermuda and if so
required by notice in writing from the said Liquidator, and
personally or by their attorneys, to come in and prove their
debts or claims at such time and place as shall be specified in
such notice, or in default thereof they will be excluded from
the benefit of any distribution made before such debts are
proved.
- A Final General Meeting of the Members of Empirica Kurtosis
Limited will be held at the offices of Wakefield Quin, Chancery
Hall, 52 Reid Street, Hamilton, Bermuda on January 7, 2005 at
10:00 a.m., or soon as possible thereafter, for the purposes of:
having an account laid before them showing the manner in which
the winding-up has been conducted and how the property of the
Company has been disposed of and of hearing any explanation that
may be given by the Liquidator; determining by Resolution the
manner in which the books, accounts and documents of the Company
and of the Liquidator thereof, shall be disposed of; and by
Resolution dissolving the Company.
CONTACT: Mr. Nicholas Hoskins, Trustee
Chancery Hall
52 Reid Street
Hamilton, Bermuda