bonds market. What was that?

[Roman Candle]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

I think the point that YOU'RE missing is that mkt moving news is an unknown variable (how the mkt reacts to that news). And one that can drastically alter the landscape of the mkt that day. Your essentially saying that your method, based on things other than guessing how the mkt will react to major news, is somehow still valid when that news hits.

You can rationalize it any way you want but your just gambling when you trade this way. You're hoping that your method somehow puts you on the right side when news, that you cannot possibly know, hits the mkt. You're right to have a stop in place because what you're doing is just GAMBLING.

Alex, I would suggest against listening to his advice of trading before major news. Watch on your own and determine how you feel about it after you've seen more days/weeks/months. Candle man is a straight gambler.

Right I've been gambling for 10 years, Gambling is not gambling in the long run. Gambling is a 50/50 proposition with no edge. Speculation implies at least 60/40 leaning towards an edge.

Based on everything you just said like “You're hoping that your method somehow puts you on the right side when news, that you cannot possibly know, hits the mkt”

Trading successfully is about not needing to know what’s going to happen next. I have stopped trying to predict out comes. I have found that by taking every setup, they correspondingly increase my sample size of trades, which in turn gives my edge ample opportunity to play out.

Learn to think in probabilities, geesh why do I bother.

 

[scriabinop23]

Quote from Roman Candle:

Right I've been gambling for 10 years, Gambling is not gambling in the long run. Gambling is a 50/50 proposition with no edge. Speculation implies at least 60/40 leaning towards an edge.

Based on everything you just said like “You're hoping that your method somehow puts you on the right side when news, that you cannot possibly know, hits the mkt”

Trading successfully is about not needing to know what’s going to happen next. I have stopped trying to predict out comes. I have found that by taking every setup, they correspondingly increase my sample size of trades, which in turn gives my edge ample opportunity to play out.

Learn to think in probabilities, geesh why do I bother.

60/40 is all you need? Ever hear of risk:reward payoffs? With good enough payoffs 10/90 is decent.

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

I agree with what you say....just NOT before mkt moving news

PS I got 12+ yrs full time trading experience.

Quote from Roman Candle:

Right I've been gambling for 10 years, Gambling is not gambling in the long run. Gambling is a 50/50 proposition with no edge. Speculation implies at least 60/40 leaning towards an edge.

Based on everything you just said like “You're hoping that your method somehow puts you on the right side when news, that you cannot possibly know, hits the mkt”

Trading successfully is about not needing to know what’s going to happen next. I have stopped trying to predict out comes. I have found that by taking every setup, they correspondingly increase my sample size of trades, which in turn gives my edge ample opportunity to play out.

Learn to think in probabilities, geesh why do I bother.

 

[Roman Candle]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

I agree with what you say....just NOT before mkt moving news

PS I got 12+ yrs full time trading experience.

I figured you would top what ever I said, If I said 17 you would have said twenty.

You don't know that it's going to be market moving news. You’re trying to predict an outcome. When you achieve complete acceptance of the uncertainty of each edge and the uniqueness of each moment your frustration with the need to know what will happen next will end.


Good luck!

 

[Roman Candle]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

I agree with what you say....just NOT before mkt moving news

PS I got 12+ yrs full time trading experience.

I guess you were trading tech stocks in 1997-2000 what were some of the momo names back then?

I use to trade Micromuse, symbol MUSE. My brother worked for them here in Dallas.

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Please, do a search of my user name and you'll see that I've said more than a few times I've been trading 12 yrs, 10 of which I have been making a good living. I'm not trying to one up you.

Secondly, YES i do know certain news will be market moving. Thats where all the years of experience kicks in. I know what numbers tend to move mkts when they are released. Bond auctions of greater than 5 yrs tend to move the mkts. I KNOW this from trading for so long.

You are confusing the issue....I DO NOT need to know the outcome, that is my whole point. Its RANDOM and so even if my edge is superior, when confronted with news that I know is imminent and the price action outcome random, I do not want to be in. I do not want to be rewarded for getting lucky nor punished for being unlucky. I did not build my method around news releases and so my reasons for entering and exiting are NEGATED when a new "force" is entered into play.

PS I've only traded futures intraday

Quote from Roman Candle:

I figured you would top what ever I said, If I said 17 you would have said twenty.

You don't know that it's going to be market moving news. You’re trying to predict an outcome. When you achieve complete acceptance of the uncertainty of each edge and the uniqueness of each moment your frustration with the need to know what will happen next will end.


Good luck!

 

[ivanbaj]

Quote from Roman Candle:

I figured you would top what ever I said, If I said 17 you would have said twenty.

You don't know that it's going to be market moving news. You’re trying to predict an outcome. When you achieve complete acceptance of the uncertainty of each edge and the uniqueness of each moment your frustration with the need to know what will happen next will end.


Good luck!

RC do you day trade or swing. Today was kinda average day 56 ticks or so. If you swing trade the news will not have been that important to you. We were in the bottom of a 4-5 day range and 26 or so day range. If you bet that the support will hold, with let's say 24 tick stop, then the news might not have been that important to you. The news can work in your favor. If not too bad or reverse.

For a day trader that works with 4-6-8 ticks stop the move was huge. There is no way you can control this type of move with such a small stop. One has to step aside or swing bigger.

 

[Roman Candle]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Please, do a search of my user name and you'll see that I've said more than a few times I've been trading 12 yrs, 10 of which I have been making a good living.

Secondly, YES i do know certain news will be market moving. Thats where all the years of experience kicks in. I know what numbers tend to move mkts when they are released. Bond auctions of greater than 5 yrs tend to move the mkts. I KNOW this from trading for so long.

You are confusing the issue....I DO NOT need to know the outcome, that is my whole point. Its RANDOM and so even if my edge is superior, when confronted with news that I know is imminent and the price action outcome random, I do not want to be in. I do not want to be rewarded for getting lucky nor punished for not being lucky. I did not build my method around news releases and so my reasons for entering and exiting are NEGATED when a new "force" is entered into play.

PS I've only traded futures intraday

There you go again, YES I know! Certain news will be market moving. Look you trade how you want and I will trade how I want.

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

So you are saying that at 2:14 EST on an FOMC day you will take a trade if you get a setup because you DON'T know that the mkt is about to move sharply one way or another at 2:15?

Quote from Roman Candle:

There you go again, YES I know! Certain news will be market moving. Look you trade how you want and I will trade how I want.

 

[Surdo]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

So you are saying that at 2:14 EST on an FOMC day you will take a trade if you get a setup because you DON'T know that the mkt is about to move sharply one way or another at 2:15?

You need to simmer the fuck down and stop attacking people for their trading styles.