Bonds Behaving Short

[Spectre2007]

lets rock!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


oi oi,

=)

25 basis, bond rally, dollar rally, gold collapse, equity collapse, oil collapse.

50 basis, bond decimation, dollar decimation, gold rally, equity rally, oil rally.

get your flak gear out..........................

 

[Spectre2007]

113 even stops uszo7 at risk from FED statement.

 

[Spectre2007]

intraday yield curve blowout, inflationary side, the futures were more pronounced then cash, and their was no arbing, which implies that the bond boys knew about the decision in advance.

there was a initial fakeout as usually happens in bonds then the yield curve proceeded to blowout even more.

 

[dhpar]

Quote from Spectre2007:

just put on a yield curve spread. Will go into the report with it, will remove different legs based on how markets behave after the announcement.

uh oh - difficult to manage post meeting.

 

[Spectre2007]

Quote from dhpar:

uh oh - difficult to manage post meeting.

quite easy if you know which leg to remove.

 

[dhpar]

Quote from Spectre2007:

quite easy if you know which leg to remove.

well the trade is still likely a downer - even assuming you had a great execution on that one leg.
But nice to here you manage to get through it as it was almost the worst position you could have into the meeting (retrospectively).

 

[Spectre2007]

Quote from dhpar:

well the trade is still likely a downer - even assuming you had a great execution on that one leg.
But nice to here you manage to get through it as it was almost the worst position you could have into the meeting (retrospectively).

the curve is a representation of inflationary/deflationary bias, since the FED cut 50, inflationary biases blew the curve out, now recessionary fears will be weighed as economic reports come out, the bond market likes to print double tops and bottoms on the daily before a meaningful trend change occurs....the 30 year should test 114 handle or high 113 (recession fears), its a cycle. People suspect that Ben is being free with his wallett, hes more conservative then what the indication was today.

And it was a poor position to handle after the meeting, since bonds didnt really move much, just the curve was where the trade was. I was expecting a 25 basis.

 

[Spectre2007]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=3m&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=

looks like 10 year is on target to retrace 50% of its gains 5.3-4.3(4.8)

4.8% targeted if current climate continues.

 

[dhpar]

Quote from Spectre2007:

People suspect that Ben is being free with his wallett, hes more conservative then what the indication was today.

you are right. he definitely can not be less conservative than what it looked like yesterday. lol

 

[Spectre2007]

lol, the yield curve continues to blowout, as long end of the curve sells off. A inflection point in shift of the curve will be when 10 year notes hit 4.75%-78%, it would represent a 50% retracement.

for the week its a feel good mentality. The inefficiency is jubilance in equities, bearishness in long end bonds.

only recessionary fears can flatten the curve.