Nah, this was an actual large strangle trade...
JPM bot 20k of it in the pit from 8 to 9 cents, maybe ran the balance for a bit, then sold 65k on block to the client. So it looks like it's a real trade, but that doesn't make it any less weird.
Bond Trader Bets $10 Million That Volatility Revival Is Imminent
- Thread starter Nighthawk
- Start date
JPM bot 20k of it in the pit from 8 to 9 cents, maybe ran the balance for a bit, then sold 65k on block to the client. So it looks like it's a real trade, but that doesn't make it any less weird.
It's a reasonably large standalone trade (at least I haven't been able to find any other legs possibly done against it in another mkt). It's a new position, rather than a cover, since OI jumped on both legs of the strangle. It's also quite short-dated.
All this kinda pushes you to a conclusion that the buyer knows or suspects something. And yet, it's a strangle, which means that the buyer actually knows or suspects very little, other than the possibility of some decent volatility. But, AFAIK, there are no events this week or next that can produce lots of volatility. Mkt pricing is in line with that (e.g. the breakeven for today's CPI is less than 4bps, which is only 10 TY ticks). So, again, the buyer of the strangle knows or suspects something and yet these suspicions are not particularly specific. That, combined with the size of the punt, feels weird to me.
The mkt gods did not bless our strangle buyer with good luck today...
how and where do you look for the other legs? Would you say that not being aware of big trades like this one or overall having an informational disadvantage by not tracking volumes, OI would hurt your process?
You can look at OTC trades on SDR (Swap Data Repository), where majority of such trades would normally be reported (with some exceptions, due to certain jurisdictions not being subject to reporting requirements).
And no, not knowing the flow certainly wouldn't hurt my process. Most of the time, I am totally indifferent re: big trades and other flow information. I only looked at this particular trade out of simple curiosity, just 'cause I find it so weird. Other than idle speculation about why anyone would do it, it means nothing to me.
That said, there are some very specific settings where OI and volumes could matter and I would care. However, those are very infrequent and particular cases (futures rolls are an example).
few people trade options in isolation so we cannot know what this trade is really about-there may be a plan to leg in either side next week, they could have spread calendar trades across many more months -who the heck knows,but agreed on the surface it seems an odd trade. Vix hitting all time lows again though- maybe Trump is about to be removed....... that'd move the market
I don't follow this market... but it seems weird to me as well, if it's that large on such a short term...
Maybe he's short the straddle and locks in some?
No, since if that were the case, we would have seen OI drop...
I mean keeping a short straddle and making a fly out of it.... so opening the strangle on the short straddle position. Not really locking in, but limiting risk...