Bond Trader 2009

Quote from johnpinochet:

0642 EST

Pre-market analysis for Monday 17 August 2009.

Seeing the ES now at -20.00, I think it is safe to say that we can buy dips in the 10 year for at least a first time approach.

I would like to buy, for a first approach only, this level:

117 135

An alternate level I have is:

117 020

but I don't think we will make it down that far.

I'm curious about the reports and how the 10 year will react. I don't see a lot of strength here at this time. It appears mostly to be a bit of a safe-haven run up.

All previously posted caveats apply.

According to my IQFeed print, we got as low as 117 160, which is two and a half ticks off so I'll put it in the doesn't count category. You have to admit though, a buy at 117 170 would have been a nice fair trade, given that the ES is down 20.00, and we still have the 0900 EST report to go.

A buy at 117 170 would have had a target of 117 240, a nice logical number. I did my scalp at 117 220 because I'm not really in to trading before this next report and just wanted a quick two ticks on the confirmed strength.
 
0910 EST

We are about to see some "tradeable" activity starting around 0920. It may last for approximately 40 minutes.

My best guess is a run for the highs.
 
1047 EST

Very difficult day to make money unless you were patient.

I'm long at 117 240 (1032 EST) and will probably get out around 117 270 on some and hold for a kiss of the high.

I really was expecting much better price action today.
 
1055 EST

One (last one) off at 117 275.

I think we have much further to go but 117 275 is a very important number. I'll wait for a spike above and pullback to buy.
 
1105 EST

Getting ready to call it a day.

I would say a kiss and failure to close decisively above the high of the day means more small ranges are in store.

I really was expecting to see 118 040 to 118 080 by now.
 
1115 EST

Here's the deal. It is getting late in the morning and we have a very important 1300 EST report. If you have a profit, or you are scalping the 3 - 4 tick range here at the high, then consider any move above the high by a few ticks as the place to be happy, i.e a short covering move to 118 020 might be a good exit.
 
Back
Top