Bond Trader 2009

0705 EST

Pre-market analysis for Friday 14 August 2009

We have the following important report times today (EST):

0830
0915
0955

I would say we need to be prepared for 1/2 to full point swings at a minimum today.

No bias. I wish to play both sides, although it really does appear that they want to make a run for 117 160.

I would be a buyer for a first time approach of 116 255.

Remember that just a little lower, 116 225 was incredibly important. If you studied MP you would know why.

All in all, we've had an excellent week with my levels. Remember the most valuable lesson learned yesterday was how quickly, a guaranteed 10 tick profit became a 16 tick or greater loss. Twice now since I've started posting I've cautioned everyone that the wisest course of action pre-market moving reports is to be out.

It is reasonably safe to play the levels pre-market open through 0800 to 0820 EST. After that, when the 0830 report comes, forget it. Anything could happen. This lesson is very important.

All previously posted caveats about trading the first time approaches apply. Today in particular may be a volatile day.
 
0907 EST

Not much to report. Just some scalp trades.

Now, things are looking bearish with the 5 minute and if this 0915 report is bad for bonds we will spike below 116 315 by about 8 ticks or greater. Trade the '000' s at your own risk. I won't use the '000' playbook on a spike move down after the report. We could find ourselves at 116 210 in no time.
 
Starting at around 0915 EST and lasting a little less than an hour we will have some great trading today. Be ready.

Spike move down targets:

116 250

116 060

Spike move up targets:

117 230

117 160
 
0949 EST

Very nice simple range bound day to trade. Once we got back above 117 035 after visiting 117 005 all short bias needed to be removed and once we were above 117 050 I knew that following MP, we would rotate back up to the high.

In any event, we have one last trade worthy event. After that I'm probably done for the day.

By the way, a decisive break below 117 035 will probably result in a visit to 116 295 at a minimum. After that, I have no opinion.
 
1009 EST

OK, we are at the upper range of a run. I am on the verge of calling it a day as I want to relax for the remainder of the evening. I would say that we may have a buy on a single approach of 117 095.

Keep in mind that 117 095 is now an extremely important number and decisive breaks below it are bad.

We may have another 20 tick run from the highs so far if the ES cooperates. (20 ticks above the high so far.)
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

Starting at around 0915 EST and lasting a little less than an hour we will have some great trading today. Be ready.

Spike move down targets:

116 250

116 060

Spike move up targets:

117 230

117 160
More...

For the record, I posted the above at 0908 EST. We just hit 117 220 a few minutes ago. We've gone from roughly 117 010 to 117 220 since my post. Everyone is different, but I only need a 10 to 12 tick range to make money. A 20 tick range is a bonus.
 
0642 EST

Pre-market analysis for Monday 17 August 2009.

Seeing the ES now at -20.00, I think it is safe to say that we can buy dips in the 10 year for at least a first time approach.

I would like to buy, for a first approach only, this level:

117 135

An alternate level I have is:

117 020

but I don't think we will make it down that far.

I'm curious about the reports and how the 10 year will react. I don't see a lot of strength here at this time. It appears mostly to be a bit of a safe-haven run up.

All previously posted caveats apply.
 
0839 EST

If it weren't for a couple of missteps I would be up at least 300 per 1 lot traded prior to 0830.

I rode up twice on the run for the highs from the mid 20's and ended up losing my net on the second one.

Long story short, I'm waiting until after the 0900 report to make my next move.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top