Bond Trader 2009

[johnpinochet]

0911 EST

I'm looking for a re-test of today's highs and a possible run to 116 210. Given the activity so far it is hard to say though. 116 130 may be it.

 

[johnpinochet]

0700 EST

Pre-market analysis for Thursday 13 August 2009

My bias is short. I'm looking to short the following levels:

116 135

116 090

116 010

The above are standard MP levels. They are not "for the first approach only" trades. I have none of those today.

My target for any down move is a minimum of 115 210, and if my bias is correct, much lower.

A decisive break below yesterday's low will tell me that we are on our way to 114 240.

 

[johnpinochet]

0705 EST

I won't have time to watch, but I believe that we do have a chance to hit 115 210 before the 0830 EST report. If we do and you've been short since 116 010, I would definitely exit there until after the reports.

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from johnpinochet:

0705 EST

I won't have time to watch, but I believe that we do have a chance to hit 115 210 before the 0830 EST report. If we do and you've been short since 116 010, I would definitely exit there until after the reports.

0826 EST

1 tick away so far from the 115 210 target.

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from johnpinochet:

0705 EST

I won't have time to watch, but I believe that we do have a chance to hit 115 210 before the 0830 EST report. If we do and you've been short since 116 010, I would definitely exit there until after the reports.

0828 EST

Done. 115 120 may stop us on the first spike down.

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from johnpinochet:

0705 EST

I won't have time to watch, but I believe that we do have a chance to hit 115 210 before the 0830 EST report. If we do and you've been short since 116 010, I would definitely exit there until after the reports.

0838 EST

I'm not saying this to be mean, but the above were very wise words to follow. Unfortunately I wonder how many folks had 10 tick profits that are now 16 tick losses? Hopefully no one reading this journal is in that camp, but if you are, you really need to re-evaluate things.

As for me, I'm just watching and waiting. Anytime you have a 16 tick plus reversal you need to carefully consider your next steps. That is it from me for a bit today.

 

[johnpinochet]

1019 EST

Remember the 1300 EST 30 year auction report. Yesterday's 10 year report was a decent move so we may have a repeat.

Upside targets for today are:

117 080

117 040

116 280

My buy targets are 116 195 and 116 160.

Danger zones are 116 125 and 116 075. Getting down that low means that market structure has changed.

The above are just a combo of MP and S/R. No first time approach type trades.

 

[johnpinochet]

1036 EST

As we rotate back up, and I'm assuming we will test the day's high at least once today, the danger zone will be 116 225 per my MP analysis. I would take some off there if you went long between my buy targets.

My best guess (assuming news cooperates) is at least a kiss of 116 280.

 

[accutrader]

Hi John:

The first pullback after the 8:30 news on a one minute chart was at a resistance line from the left. Would you have gone long from 8:39 to 8:44?

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from accutrader:

Hi John:

The first pullback after the 8:30 news on a one minute chart was at a resistance line from the left. Would you have gone long from 8:39 to 8:44?

That about sums it up. I would have waited for 116 135 to exit on that trade.

Honestly, you just need to start doing these trades. Trust me, you are ready. Managing you money, learning what you do best, etc, will take time.