Bond Trader 2009

Quote from ivanbaj:

Now. Do we go to 116 8 or return down? The longer it stays around 116 1.5 the more I think it will go down.

But 116 4 then 8 is so close and attractive.
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When I said they would play with us, what I meant is that they will bounce us back and forth around the '000's.

I don't know if I will trade anymore today, BUT if I were to trade, 115 275 might be good for a small buy.

A scalpers guess right now would be that we play around in the 30's and then jump back up to the day's high.
 
0945 EST

Funny story.

My hobby over the weekend is playing around with various trading related ideas and either writing strategies in NinjaTrader's application or writing my own code for some various neural networks I use. One of my nets has a bit of a hit or miss with the signals. Just taking the signals one would break even. I can improve it with profit targets and stops, but it still wasn't quite where I wanted it. Then I began to visually inspect the chart with the signals and saw a pattern. When it was right, it was right immediately, when it was wrong, price went in its favor initially but after a 2 - 3 five minute bars, if price reversed and broke through it's original entry price, you could take the reverse position with your eyes closed.

I keep this net open in a small window and fade its signals as I described. I had other reasons for going long at 115 235 but it was nice when it went short at that level. Frosting on the cake so to speak.
 
0952 EST

I'm going on record as saying the trade of the day occurred at 0939 on the 1 minute bar, going long at 115 310.

If you know why, you know all you need to know about trading.

With that said, I didn't take the trade, AGAIN. Distracted posting here. I really need to take that break I mentioned earlier.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

0945 EST

Funny story.

My hobby over the weekend is playing around with various trading related ideas and either writing strategies in NinjaTrader's application or writing my own code for some various neural networks I use. One of my nets has a bit of a hit or miss with the signals. Just taking the signals one would break even. I can improve it with profit targets and stops, but it still wasn't quite where I wanted it. Then I began to visually inspect the chart with the signals and saw a pattern. When it was right, it was right immediately, when it was wrong, price went in its favor initially but after a 2 - 3 five minute bars, if price reversed and broke through it's original entry price, you could take the reverse position with your eyes closed.

I keep this net open in a small window and fade its signals as I described. I had other reasons for going long at 115 235 but it was nice when it went short at that level. Frosting on the cake so to speak.
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If you have multiple "predictors" you can use Game Theory to optimize your decision by getting input from your predictors.

Watch this:

http://videolectures.net/mlss08au_blum_org/
 
115 200 will be a key level today

Great call, John. ZN was near 115 200 from 8.23 to 8:47. The direction was up and ES was moving down. This would have been a low risk entry.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

When I said they would play with us, what I meant is that they will bounce us back and forth around the '000's.

I don't know if I will trade anymore today, BUT if I were to trade, 115 275 might be good for a small buy.

A scalpers guess right now would be that we play around in the 30's and then jump back up to the day's high.
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1055 EST

They are definitely playing games right now. Also, a buy at 115 275 is now the second trade of the day. They can play games but they can't play with my levels. Bwahaaa (Dr. Evil laugh)

I had a buy for a 4 lot at 116 010 on the way down from the highs, but as soon as we started dropping like a rock I lifted it to see if I could get a better price. When we broke 115 310 I thought I'd better step aside. Little did I know that 115 275 would be hit AND that we would spike right back up to 116 050.

Honestly, my thoughts were a guaranteed 2 - 3 ticks, not 10 or more. I really don't like activity like this as it requires more gaming skills (rapid reflexes) than the simple dividend payment type trading that I aspire to.
 
Fed Buys $2.704 Billion in Treasuries After Delaying Auction

By Sapna Maheshwari and Susanne Walker

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve bought $2.704 billion of Treasuries maturing in 2026 though 2039 after delaying the close of the auction for 20 minutes because of a technical problem.

The Fed purchased 14 of the 17 securities listed for possible purchase were acquired, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York statement today.

A technical problem temporarily stopped the auction, which was restarted as a new operation, a New York Fed official said. The so-called coupon pass had been scheduled to close at 11 a.m. The central bank initially said the auction was canceled on its Web site. Federal Reserve Bank of New York spokeswoman Deborah Kilroe declined to comment further.

“The market sold off initially because of an announcement that the Fed had canceled the Treasury purchase, instead of postponed,” said Jeffry Feigenwinter, head of Treasury trading in New York at BNP Paribas Securities, one of 18 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve. “The market bounced back when it realized it was just postponed twenty minutes.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Sapna Maheshwari in New York smaheshwar11@bloomberg.net
 
0715 EST

Pre market analysis for Wednesday 12 August 2009

Generally speaking I'm very wary of days like today. The following news items tell the tale:

10-Yr Note Auction
1300 EST

Treasury Budget
1400 EST

FOMC Meeting Announcement
1415 EST

I will only be trading up until 1200 EST.

My best guess is that the best trades will occur by 1100 EST. I have no bias. If forced to guess I would say we have another leg up.

If somehow before 0830 EST we got down to 116 045, I would enter long at 116 050 and exit at 116 070 or greater looking for a return to the POC. That would be a quick scalp only.

If we had the makings of a 1 point spike move down, I would say 115 160 will provide temporary support.

Targets for an upside move are 116 210, 116 260 and 117 040.

No one time approach only trades for today. Most of what I see requires my full attention, other than the prior to 0830 scalp I mention above.
 
0718 EST

The two best times to trade today are:

0730 EST

and

1000 EST

I will look to taking on more size than normal there, but will probably initially take a 4 lot at most and add to the trade if we have a stair step pattern.
 
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