Bond Trader 2009

1118 EST

Speaking of a bird in hand, I think I'll call it a day. I'm feeling like I expended a great deal of mental effort on a math test.

Great day profit wise, but somehow I don't feel good about it. Almost as if it wasn't all it could have been. It really is an odd feeling.
 
I saw a pattern that almost always results in a rather significant move in my direction.

John - Is this pattern something that you would be willing to share?
 
Quote from accutrader:

I saw a pattern that almost always results in a rather significant move in my direction.

John - Is this pattern something that you would be willing to share?
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accutrader,

I need to maintain a few tricks in my bag of secrets.

A hint would be looking at the overnight activity, looking at the ES, and finally something on the chart.

A caveat about this trade is that the tight range they kept just prior to the report was scaring me. Usually for everything to fall into place, price should have started collapsing just prior to the report. Another caveat is that you'd better have rapid fire money management because price can move against you quickly. Finally, I don't really like "almost always" trades like this one where there is the potential for a complete, dramatic reversal against you.

On a much easier note, I would focus on the trade of the day I missed. Shorting at 116 090 and taking whatever you were happy with on your exit was the "Trade of the Day". Also, buying at 116 190 and again near 116 050 worked out very well today too.

I had a solid profit today, but looking back at the day, I missed at least 1000 USD in net profit by missing the 116 090 trade. 4 lot * 8 ticks, exiting at 116 010.

John
 
Hi John:

I understand wanting to keep some things for yourself. However, you never know until you ask.

The short at the first retrace at 10:10:44 sure looks easy in retrospect. I am asking myself why I did not get the trade.

Regards

Jim
 

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Quote from accutrader:

Hi John:

I understand wanting to keep some things for yourself. However, you never know until you ask.

The short at the first retrace at 10:10:44 sure looks easy in retrospect. I am asking myself why I did not get the trade.

Regards

Jim
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To anyone following along, the trade of the day was the first ellipse + down arrow on the chart below. The other ellipse + arrows are additional common sense trades.
 

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0658 EST

Pre-Market for Tuesday 04 August 2009

I have no bias today. If price decisively breaks 116 015 then I believe we will test yesterday's low.

I would like to sell the following level on a first approach only:

116 26

All previously stated caveats apply. Also, I know I mentioned this before but here it is again, by datamining thousands of my trades, I know that when I call a trade, I'm usually good for 3 - 6 ticks. With this in mind, I usually only look for 3 or 4 ticks on any trade I execute. I trade multiple lots to allow myself to capitalize on trades that may move a lot more in my favor.

That is all for now. We should have some nice moves today. Good trading!
 
1026 EST

Very nice day so far.

Notice that POC from yesterday is 116 050 and today is 116 075 so far.

I think both can be played and on both sides, i.e. long and short.

My take so far is that we will revisit the lows at 115 300, although the safest trades short in that direction have already been made.

In conclusion, unless we start getting signs of a "V" reversal day, I'll be looking closely at 116 050, 116 080 and 116 120 for possible shorts. It all depends on PA.

Good trading!
 
Quote from enochbenjamin:

John,

if I am following you correctly, you recently took a short around 116'03 for a quick profit.

e.b.
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If you are talking a short at roughly 1021 EST, then yes. I got 116 025 though and I was out at 115 310 on some and 115 315 on others.
 
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