Bond Trader 2009

A very conservative example of how to make money day in and day out in the 10 year futures. Yes, I completely missed the spike up move on the first few 5 min bars post 0830 EST report. So what.

Attachment: zn 09-09 7_31_2009 (1 min) - copy.jpg
This has been downloaded 18 time(s).


John - I see a chart that shows good entries. I would appreciate it if you would provide an explanation of the trading plan.
 
Quote from accutrader:

A very conservative example of how to make money day in and day out in the 10 year futures. Yes, I completely missed the spike up move on the first few 5 min bars post 0830 EST report. So what.

Attachment: zn 09-09 7_31_2009 (1 min) - copy.jpg
This has been downloaded 18 time(s).


John - I see a chart that shows good entries. I would appreciate it if you would provide an explanation of the trading plan.
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Everything you need to know regarding a trading plan is contained in the below posts that I made on Friday 31 July 2009. Everything.


0846 EST

I'm looking to buy either 116 190 or 116 130 on a simple S/R retracement play.

0911 EST

117 040 is a major WGSR. I'm calling it a main target for a trade initiated between 116 195 and 116 250.

0918 hrs

All indications on what I watch are that we will get up to a minimum of 117 040, maybe even higher. Based on the 040 assumption and the '000' play book, I'm telling you there will be multiple trades to engage in up through 1200 hrs EST. I won't be able to post. Time permitting I'll post a chart at some point.

0939 EST

I may call it a day, not sure. My assessment regarding 117 040 as an upside target for this cat and mouse game now at 116 240 still stands. If we go all the way down to 116 160 or 116 130, then obviously it will be much harder to get back up there. As long as we stay up in this area for now, dipping perhaps no further than 116 190, I would say any attempts at the day's high should be jumped on.

In conclusion that is it for me for today. Really nothing further to add other than it is very early in the day on a Friday and I do believe there are more moves on the way, to include a return to test the high.
 
Looking at the first trade on the chart, I refer you to my 0846 EST post. Once it was obvious that 116 190 would not be breached to the downside, I wanted to get in ASAP. I actually had attempted to get a limit filled at 116 210. I chased and got in at 116 235. I wasn't too concerned because I knew that a single bar close above 117 000 was a given.

I exited the trade at 116 275 when we failed to break 117 000 decisively. I refer you to all of my journals where I have repeatedly talked about the double 00's in the 30 year and the triple 000's in the 10 year. The big boys like to play games there.

I went long again at 116 260 thinking that the retracement was over and we would head up to 117 040. I refer you to my 0918 EST post.

I exited at 116 260 and went short at 116 260 when it became obvious to me that we would attempt a revisit to 116 190. I exited this short at 116 230 and 116 240 due to a pressing engagement. I refer you to 0939 post where I emphatically state my belief that we will go higher, hence no need to try and ride a short down on a lark when the trades to be thinking about are getting the best price possible for a run to 117 and change.
 
So now here is the test. At the 1120 EST 5 min bar we have a high of 117 050. The bar is a solid red candle for me.

Question 1:

What might you do there for a very quick trade, looking for 1 - 3 ticks?

Question 2:

Where would you look to buy for a first time approach only after the 117 050 high was made?

Finally, I won't go into why 117 120 was a given for the next leg up. Yes, after enough screen time and study you too will see targets.

For now, my biggest edges are:

1 hour and 5 min WGSR
Timing setup #1
Timing setup #2
Datamining my trades to determine ideal profit targets on a first unit.
A few others I can't discuss, like why 117 120 was a given, or for that matter why 117 040 was a given.
 
Hi John:

Thank you for the very complete explanation. I wish I knew how you decided in advance that 116-19.0 was a place to buy and how 117-04.0 was a major target and that 117-12.0 was the price for the next leg up.

After the 8:30 news, ZN did retrace to 116-19.5 and I can understand the buy once it became evident that 116-19.5 would hold. Your exit based on the 000’s is a new idea to me.

Your decision to go short at 116-26.0 worked well but you did not provide your reason.

As far as your answers to your questions:

Question 1 - This is not something that I would do as it is contra the strong up direction but after the 5 minute red candle at 11:20, a retrace to 116-23.0 was a possibility. My answer to the question is short one tick below the 11:50 bar.

Question 2 – Once it became evident that, on a 1 minute chart, 117-00.0 would hold as support, I would place a resting buy order one tick over that price.
 
Quote from accutrader:

Hi John:

Thank you for the very complete explanation. I wish I knew how you decided in advance that 116-19.0 was a place to buy and how 117-04.0 was a major target and that 117-12.0 was the price for the next leg up.

After the 8:30 news, ZN did retrace to 116-19.5 and I can understand the buy once it became evident that 116-19.5 would hold. Your exit based on the 000’s is a new idea to me.

Your decision to go short at 116-26.0 worked well but you did not provide your reason.

As far as your answers to your questions:

Question 1 - This is not something that I would do as it is contra the strong up direction but after the 5 minute red candle at 11:20, a retrace to 116-23.0 was a possibility. My answer to the question is short one tick below the 11:50 bar.

Question 2 – Once it became evident that, on a 1 minute chart, 117-00.0 would hold as support, I would place a resting buy order one tick over that price.
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accutrader,

You get an "A" for the test.

116 190 you could have gotten from simple S/R.

117 040 and 117 120 as targets I determined based on my WGSR work.

The final trade on that chart where I go short at 116 260 is just standard '000' playbook for me. First attempt at high around 0840 EST, second attempt around 0918 EST, price action was weak when I took the short.

If you study price action long enough, you'll get a feel for the ebb and flow of the market. On some days I can play a single 5 minute bar like clockwork, taking a key trade or two within 5 minutes. These trades would be an example of quick scalps that would be impossible to post here.

The most important thing I can tell you is that regardless of the method you choose, keep your trade entry and exit time frames consistent and keep your profit targets and stops consistent with the time frames.

If you enter on a 1 min bar, you should not be looking to exit on a 60 min bar. If you entered on a short time frame and have a 3 tick profit target, you should not use a 16 tick stop that a 60 min bar might give you.

Good trading!

John
 
Hi John:

If I understood you correctly, a favorite entry of yours is at the first retrace after a news release using a 3 or 5 minute chart. I would appreciate it if you would give me your thoughts on a long entry at the circle on the attached chart. The chart is a 20 range bar chart. The blue line is yesterday’s high. I am always reluctant to enter at what might be resistance but there is strong momentum. Thank you in advance.

Jim
 

Attachments

0655 EST

Pre Market 03 August 2009

I'll keep this short. My take on today is that we will be range bound through 1000 hrs for the reports at that time.

I would like to be a first time buyer at the following level:

116 050

A secondary buy might be at 116 190, but this would be with less confidence and less size.

If we hold above 116 190 through 1000 EST and then proceed to explode upwards, I will buy all dips to support.

I may decide to go short at any time, but for now, my assessment is as I wrote above.
 
Quote from accutrader:

Hi John:

If I understood you correctly, a favorite entry of yours is at the first retrace after a news release using a 3 or 5 minute chart. I would appreciate it if you would give me your thoughts on a long entry at the circle on the attached chart. The chart is a 20 range bar chart. The blue line is yesterday’s high. I am always reluctant to enter at what might be resistance but there is strong momentum. Thank you in advance.

Jim
More...

I would have gone long there. It is a fairly classic setup. A test of yesterday's high, back off, and then exceed the high. My buy would have been either the bar after your circled bar, or more likely the next bar. The second bar (the more likely one that I would buy during its formation) is the one that completely confirms that yesterday's high is no longer resistance.
 
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