Bond Trader 2009

Per the previously mentioned issues coming up at work, I will be in and out this week. Hard to say if I can post.

Here is a nice tidbit to file away.

From reading my journal(s), everyone knows my favorite technique of waiting for the retracement immediately after a bad report for bonds, and selling for the next wave down. Today gave us an excellent example. Pull up a 3 - 5 min chart. Look at the bar that drops on the 1300 EST news. Look at the next bar. Mine hit 116 160. A short at 116 140 to 116 150 and a cover at 116 000 would have been the trade to make there.
 

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sharp10 will be posting his thoughts on occasion here as well.

As I mentioned, my contributions might be sporadic. I will try to do a single post pre-market with levels and times. The caveat is that I may not be able to manage the trade, so use your own judgment to enter and exit.
 
0100 hrs EST

Pre-Market post for Wed 29 Jul 2009

I have two important levels that will probably be important for a few days:

116 210

and

115 310

Between the two, I would prefer to sell a first time approach only of 116 210.

The less confident trade is to buy for a first time approach only 115 310. The reason why I'm not confident about buying that level is that the big guys like to play a lot of games just above and just below the '000' price level.

Another type of level I look at based on more traditional pivots shows me that being a first time seller of 116 220 and a first time buyer of 115 250 makes sense as well.

In conclusion I'll take 115 250 as the buy level, and the sell level remains the same.

Normal caveats apply regarding first time approach only, market moving reports, and using your own tools for entry and exit.

The single best time today appears to be around 1100 hrs EST. This is approximate.
 
0658 EST

Pre-market 30 July 2009

Yesterday had no trades on my posted levels per the caveats repeatedly stated in the journal, in this case market moving news at 1300 hrs. On a side note, the buy would have worked on a re-entry, but that is a whole separate journal.

Today, I would look to sell 116 020 and I would look to buy 115 140. Obviously both of these possible trades are for a first time approach only.

The posted levels from yesterday are still important (not the buy sell advice, just the levels are important).

Important times (EST) are:

0815

and

1100

All previously stated caveats apply.
 
0549 EST

Pre-market 31 July 2009

So far no trades from my single daily posts, i.e. first time buy or sell. If I have time, I can post how you might have attacked yesterday only knowing the 4 levels, i.e. the two from yesterday and the two from the day before. In a nutshell, after the 1300 hrs spike up, what happened at approximately the 1345 hrs bar(30 Jul 2009)? Yes, we came towards 116 020 (116 025 print) and within 25 mintutes we were back up to 116 090. Buying around 116 025 is classic S/R strategy, but I didn't mention it here so it doesn't count.

I'm bullish today, so my only level at this time is to buy 116 020 - 116 040 on a first time approach only. Based on the hourly chart I don't even think we will get down that far.

My times for today are:

0815

and

1100

All previously posted caveats apply.
 
hope you had a limit on for '02 - if so you should be done for the day!

I tried to watch and place my order manually and missed the boat.

now i'll wait for the 50% retracment and see if that trick works today.
 
Quote from enochbenjamin:

hope you had a limit on for '02 - if so you should be done for the day!

I tried to watch and place my order manually and missed the boat.

now i'll wait for the 50% retracment and see if that trick works today.
More...

My automated Ninjatrader strategy which I maintain on "Sim" for obvious reasons, bought at 116 030. For real money, I try to avoid trading right on the report as it can go either way. I like the retracement after the report bar is finished. In any event, I tried to get in on limit orders once we broke 116 130, but no fills each time. I stopped chasing after 116 200 was hit.

Now I'm waiting for the retracement levels previously mentioned, although it looks like it is safe to remove 116 190 as my rule of thumb is it is safe to buy a retracement on the first approach only. Second and third approaches require further analysis and stress.

As an aside, since I brought up the above NT ATM, every NT chart I've posted in my journals here have been live IB trades, real money, real account. If it is "Sim", I'll say so.
 
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