Bond Trader 2009

0924 EST

Unfortunately, the market has been somewhat lethargic. The ideal setup was a move to 117 200 followed by a return to 117 130 for a first buy. Now we have a 1000 EST Housing report approaching and it would be wise to be cautious.

At this point, here are two scenarios, keeping the 1000 report in mind.

1) We drop to 117 020 or lower, pre-report, for the move up post-report.

2) We run up to 117 240 or higher, pre-report, for the infamous Rocheambeau move down post-report.
 
0941 EST

If 117 020 gets filled, I will look to exit quickly. Reports can be dangerous. Obviously, anywhere near 0950 and the order is cancelled. It isn't worth the risk.
 
0945 EST

Cancelling order.

Hourly WGSR is now negative, albeit within the context of Tuesday we are still positive AND the 1000 report is coming out AND the weakness leads me to believe I may be wrong in my bias.
 
0953 EST

Fortunately, no trades so far this morning.

I am kicking myself for the obvious missed short trades all morning long but then again, they really aren't missed as my plan was to wait for the prices posted.

Need to see what 1000 EST brings prior to making any trades.

The whole move down from 117 150 looks suspicious, i.e. a set-up, or leaked info. Stand aside.
 
1012 EST

OK, suffice it to say everything is negative. Today has been a no trade day for me and my analysis has been off. My wife is asking about watching a movie so I'm taking a break.

I have family plans for Friday so see you on Monday.
 
John - Are you still writing this journal? Would someone please let me know if there is a news source, other than CNBC, for bond sales? Bonds tanked after what must have been bad news on sales at 1:00 eastern today.
 
Quote from accutrader:

John - Are you still writing this journal? Would someone please let me know if there is a news source, other than CNBC, for bond sales? Bonds tanked after what must have been bad news on sales at 1:00 eastern today.
More...

Some big news coming this week at work for me, so I may have other things on my mind.

Bloomberg radio generally does a good job.

The only thing I look at news related is simply the schedule of events for each day which can be found here:

http://online.barrons.com/page/barrons_econoday.html?mod=b_hps_tools_eco
 
Quote from accutrader:

John - Are you still writing this journal? Would someone please let me know if there is a news source, other than CNBC, for bond sales? Bonds tanked after what must have been bad news on sales at 1:00 eastern today.
More...

Another solid link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html

Not sure how quickly they post the news.

Finally, the huge amount of supply coming in was pretty much common knowledge since last week.
 
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