Bond Trader 2009

0634 EST

Tuesday was such a signficant day that we still haven't worked off the positive move. In my opinion we still have a chance to get back up there so I will still do the following:

Buy a one time approach of the following:

117 020

116 230

I'm more confident of 116 230 as a trade.

Next, assuming we never get down to those levels, if we can trade above 117 130 by 6 - 12 ticks and retrace back to 117 130, I would be a buyer.

My hourly wave analysis is positive.
My 15 min wave analysis is positive.
5 min doesn't matter this early.

My best guess right now is that we will re-visit 118 000 at a minimum. 0830 reports can change all that of course.
 
Quote from accutrader:

I trade the 30 year bond, symbol ZB. I would appreciate it if you would give us your comments as to why you have decided to trade the 10 year bond.
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The 30 year was my favorite and I have traded it since 1994. Roughly just before the start of this terrible financial crisis, i.e. February 2007 or so, I started trading the 10 year exclusively.

Reasons:

Volume
1/2 tick (this doesn't matter anymore)
Seems to follow S/R better
I can read it better

It still moves powerfully, just in a different way, compared to the 30 year.

Once I moved to the 10 year, I began having many more consecutive positive profit days and many more consecutive weeks without a loss. The difference was pretty dramatic. I attribute it to being able to exit easier. There have been many more times than I can count where I have been filled on exact high print or low print in the 10 year, and in the 30 year it rarely happened.
 
0839 EST

I'm still leaning towards long. Even though we haven't broken to the upside decisively.

My best guess is that we will make a run for 117 240 - 117 260.

This can change on a dime with a report.
 
0859 EST

The reason we keep on bouncing back up after dips to 117 090 is that 117 090 is POC according to MP. Very important number. Let's watch it carefully.

Still biased long and simply waiting for my published levels.
 
0903 EST

I'm going to step away for awhile. I have an order setup with NinjaTrader to buy at previously posted levels. Smaller size, tight stop with first one.
 
Quote from enochbenjamin:

speaking of MP - the VAH is around 117'15 - did anyone take the ride down to 9?
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That would have been a nice trade. I saw it but thought we would have a move through that price to the 117 240 area, hence no short so far.

0917 EST

I'm going to go out on a limb and say a buy between 117 090 and 117 150 will be considered a solid move today. As always use your own judgement and my decision can change in a matter of seconds.
 
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