Bond Trader 2009

0852 EST

The trade of the day was the buy at 117 140, without a doubt.

Well, no sense dwelling on it.

My hourly bias is long.

My 5 minute bias is long.

For now I will sell a first time approach only to the following levels:

117 290

I will buy a first time approach to the following levels:

117 075

Key time range between 1115 and 1200 EST.

I may have more to come later if possible. Keep in mind that I take other trades. I think the above are the best. Usual rules apply, i.e. stay away during market moving reports. Most obvious rule is to use some common sense and not let a 3 - 6 tick profit trade go against you 18 ticks. Nobody would ever do that, right?:D
 
0924 EST

Best guess is that the lows are in for now and that we rotate back up to 117 240 at a minimum.

I'm scalping long in here, i.e. anywhere between 117 160 and 117 190.
 
0931 EST

Out at 117 215. My entry was 117 175.

I think we can go higher to 117 240 or even higher, but I never pass up a 4 tick net profit, at least on half. I got out completely because of targets.

5 min remains long. 60 min remains long. Let's see if we have a V day.
 
0938 EST

Hourly wave count negative.

Hourly WGSR still positive.

15 min wave count negative.

5 min WGSR negative.

My next 1 - 2 plays will be short and then I'll call it a day.

Looking to short 117 180 for a first approach only. Price is at 117 145.

The longer term trades mentioned earlier still stand.
 
0949 EST

To give you an idea of some of the things every trader will have to face and come to grips with, I very badly want to sell into this decline. My problem is price is at 117 145 and there is no point in it. If you have been studying this market for a long time, you know that the big boys love people who buy the high / sell the low, looking for a continuation move. Especially since January they have been killing the continuation move.

The better trade to take if we continue down is my posted long term trade, i.e. the buy further down for the first approach only.
 
Quote from enochbenjamin:

I need to remember this one - just let +5 turn to -4
More...

The above was one of the hardest lessons for me to learn. I want you to know though that I'm not arbitrarily picking a number. By analyzing thousands of my trades I've determined that trades generally go in my favor 3 - 6 ticks. I compromised and took the lower end of the range as my default first exit. 4 ticks however is a bit of a magical number for me so I will grab that the moment price looks really weak.
 
Interesting as if I follow my rules I will ALWAYS take 1 lot off after 4 ticks and move the rest to break-even. I have found that if I properly plan my trades I can almost always get the 4 ticks and if I get stopped out on the rest, so be it - just reload and wait for the next opportunity.

I just didn't follow my own rules.... but I was given a second chance and just made it up. :-)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top