Bond Trader 2009

[johnpinochet]

0944 EST

In retrospect, I should have seen that coming. We hit POC, (according to my MP chart we hit 116 035 and POC was 116 030) AND we shot straight back up.

That would have been a fine long trade. That is the unfortunate part of having a bias.

 

[johnpinochet]

0947 EST

It looks like they are popping us up pre-report for a swift ....

Sorry I have to edit the above.

It looks like they are popping us up pre-report for the infamous "Rochambeau".

 

[johnpinochet]

0956 EST

That is it for me for posting. With 1000 arriving I now have a bit of a window for an ideal time to trade and I need to concentrate.

Good trading!

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from henderson:

I have noticed that much time is wasted in NN by many (too hard to troubleshoot when things go poorly).....have you tried out any genetic algos?

I've messed with GA's a bit. To be honest I lump it all together, but yes, they are different, and my success with them is better BUT I still think the whole search a waste of time.

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from johnpinochet:

0956 EST

That is it for me for posting. With 1000 arriving I now have a bit of a window for an ideal time to trade and I need to concentrate.

Good trading!

Sorry, forgot to mention, in addition to the ranges previously posted, here is a specific ideal time to trade:

1037 EST

Let say, roughly 5 minutes on either side.

 

[johnpinochet]

1006 EST

Unless we start spiking up and breaking today's high, my best guess now is that we drift down into 1037 with a possible change in trend at that time.

I'm flat.

 

[johnpinochet]

0731 EST

I would look to buy any approach one time of the following:

116 240

116 160

Unfortunately the one time buy of 116 240 has already occured once at 0600 EST so I don't know that I would buy again now at 0733 EST.

Also, the above levels are meaningless during market moving 0830 reports.

Yesterday, my posted levels were good for my minimum 3 tick profit, EVEN with the direction of the market going up.

 

[enochbenjamin]

Sorry if this has been addressed already, but how are you determining your ideal trade times? Is that based on fib time zones?

Thx in advance.

e.b.

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from enochbenjamin:

Sorry if this has been addressed already, but how are you determining your ideal trade times? Is that based on fib time zones?

Thx in advance.

e.b.

Market geometry and another method I can't discuss.

Market geometry requires a properly scaled chart or it really doesn't work.

The other way which I used in one of the previous journals was via a neural net work looking for the most ideal time to buy or sell on any given day.

 

[johnpinochet]

0836 EST

It looks like things are changing and overall direction is down.

I'm now looking to sell for a first approach only:

116 275

116 210

Current short at 116 160 will be watched closely and exited at break even if necessary.