0917 EST
Not taking this trade but a long at 116 160 and exit at 116 200 looks great.
Not taking this trade but a long at 116 160 and exit at 116 200 looks great.
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Bond Trader 2009
- Thread starter johnpinochet
- Start date
OK, while posting it looks like the trade occurred. I'm not in, but it is a quick scalp and get out type of trade.
0921 EST
In retrospect that long was a great trade. Divergences were present. Key support was bounced off of.
My issue is that I'm loathe to initiate counter trend trades on major 1/2 point to full point move type days. Some more retest failures of the low and I'll look to go long.
Final word, remember, this market has been hitting us with "V" days constantly. That is why you see me taking multiple trades on the way down and not holding on from 117 and change. In retrospect, I would have made more money, but I do what works for me. I may not post again, so, good trading!
In retrospect that long was a great trade. Divergences were present. Key support was bounced off of.
My issue is that I'm loathe to initiate counter trend trades on major 1/2 point to full point move type days. Some more retest failures of the low and I'll look to go long.
Final word, remember, this market has been hitting us with "V" days constantly. That is why you see me taking multiple trades on the way down and not holding on from 117 and change. In retrospect, I would have made more money, but I do what works for me. I may not post again, so, good trading!
0940 EST
Short 2 at 116 240.
Short 2 at 116 240.
0942 EST
Out both:
116 225
116 220
Could have waited for more. Could even wait for a re-test of the lows BUT what I just did is essentially 90% plus correct. Waiting for a re-test of the lows is not.
I initially thought of shorting at 116 200 BUT I knew with a second failure of the lows that we weren't going to stop there.
Out both:
116 225
116 220
Could have waited for more. Could even wait for a re-test of the lows BUT what I just did is essentially 90% plus correct. Waiting for a re-test of the lows is not.
I initially thought of shorting at 116 200 BUT I knew with a second failure of the lows that we weren't going to stop there.
Next key levels are:
117 015
116 290
I don't know what I would do there. I think the safer short is 117 015 for the first time only. You can almost always short just above the '000' for a quick return to '300'.
I think that is it for me. I have two Netflix romantic comedies to choose from, "The Wedding Crashers", and "Failure to Launch" as well as a suspense thriller, "Secret Window". The boss says it is movie night.
Good trading all. Remember, I left money on the table with my trades, BUT that is OK. That is a major lesson to learn. Plan your entries and exists (and times if you can) in advance. It is your playbook. Stick to it. I want my trading to resemble a steady income stream from dividends, not a 30-40% correct system of hoping and praying.
117 015
116 290
I don't know what I would do there. I think the safer short is 117 015 for the first time only. You can almost always short just above the '000' for a quick return to '300'.
I think that is it for me. I have two Netflix romantic comedies to choose from, "The Wedding Crashers", and "Failure to Launch" as well as a suspense thriller, "Secret Window". The boss says it is movie night.
Good trading all. Remember, I left money on the table with my trades, BUT that is OK. That is a major lesson to learn. Plan your entries and exists (and times if you can) in advance. It is your playbook. Stick to it. I want my trading to resemble a steady income stream from dividends, not a 30-40% correct system of hoping and praying.
By the way, I consider the last trade my "trade of the day"? Why? I placed the order around 0900 hrs. It hit at 0940. At that moment in time I knew I had a 90% plus chance of getting 2 - 4 ticks out of it. You can't beat that. Support and resistance. Well, being able to see WG activity helps, but I could have made that trade without the WG tell tale sign.
Quote from mcbre1:
It looks like your yellow line is the midnight EST open and then the red line is the low of today and the blue line is the high of the day. Then you trade the breakouts of previous support and resistance?
Your observation is correct for that particular chart BUT there is a little more to it than that.
I actually look at a different chart similar to the one I post here. It gives me the ability to focus on a particular series of bars and create support and resistance off of that series of bars.
I determine the series of bars based on a couple of different and unrelated methods. The below will be rather lengthy. I'll conclude with a post regarding as of today what I look for. I include the below simply to summarize my studies.
Determining Support and Resistance
One way I use is the neural network method I've discussed in the past journals. It tells me the single best time to buy or sell on any given day, but it doesn't tell me in advance.
A second way involves market geometry (MG). I have a few different ways to do it, i.e. Gann, Pitchforks, etc. MG is my favorite and I actually can determine turning points days in advance.
A third way involves something I can't discuss. Most people wouldn't believe me if I told them, so I keep it to myself.
A fourth way is what I playfully call the Working Group Support and Resistance (WGSR). In an earlier journal I detail some of this. I thought a lot about how one might go about seeing the 'hidden hand'. I've come up with a way, and when that bar occurs I know immediately that I need to watch out for a certain price ratio based on that bar. Depending on the direction of this 'hidden hand', I know that I can at a minimum buy support and sell resistance at least one time.
The above are what I've done on my own.
I also look at daily, weekly and hourly pivots. This isn't necessary, but I like to be aware of what everyone else is looking to for key levels. Recently, I started paying more attention to the opening range as well. The reason for looking at the opening range is that it tells me in a second whether the market is strong or weak. I just started doing this recently.
A final thing in the S/R area is Market Profile. At one time I thought it was too difficult or of no use. I now know better. Once again, similar to the opening range but better, in a matter of seconds, I know if I should be a buyer or a seller generally speaking. Note that it doesn't tell you to buy or sell, just if it makes more sense to buy or sell.
Determining Trade Direction
I use a simple neural network. It is based on momentum. This is kept on a 4 min chart.
I use a variation of Elliot Wave. I only look to see if we are somewhere in the middle. I don't care about the exact start of the wave structure. I only need to know we are in the middle. My wave counts are on a 15 minute and a 60 minute chart.
When a WGSR occurs, it always occurs in a given direction. This tells me to buy/sell S/R in that direction.
Finally, I really like linear regression channels. They work really well as a fail-safe type of indicator, letting you know that the market has changed in a very dramatic way and that your analysis is wrong.
On a side note, it is my belief that for market geometry and for my linear regression chart, I must have a properly scaled chart. I've had limited success with auto-scaling. Auto-scaling will throw off your cycle counts and your breaks through the linear regression channels.
Money management
I always trade a minimum of 2 contracts. There are exceptions, i.e. pre-market.
Based on analysis of thousands of trades I have done, I've determined that I am good for the first 2 - 4 ticks. I take one off at 3 ticks no exceptions. I adjust this target if my entry wasn't ideal. The other one rides.
This concludes the lengthy explanation of my current methods. I'll post summary of my workflow. It really is quite simple.