Bond Trader 2009 - War Stories for 18 March 2009

J

johnpinochet

I'll go first. This isn't a war story per se, but what could have happened does give me chills.

I only trade the morning hours of the ZN. Generally speaking I'm done by noon. When I get up in the morning (evening CST), I like to go over the afternoon trades I would have taken. For the most part, the afternoon trades almost always go the way that I would have played them had I been awake.

Without a doubt, I can say that had I traded Wednesday afternoon, I would have experienced my largest loss ever. I've been trading between 2 - 6 lots depending on conditions. Looking at the 1 - 3 minute charts of yesterday, mentally projecting my stress, my fumbling in disbelief, I don't know that I could have gotten out prior to a 1 full point run against me.

Had I been trading the ZN yesterday, looking at the price levels I would have been selling 121 180. It worked like clock work the entire AM AND most of the afternoon. I'm guessing I probably would have lost four thousand easily.

Yes, I know, obviously no business being in just prior to 1415 hrs.

Curious to see what others have to say. Also very curious to know how others would rate this in terms of prior experiences, i.e. 9/11 or 1987. From my personal experience, this one is off the charts ... ah... sorry ... but I can't think of anything else like this one.

For future readers, a year from now, I leave you with the CBOT settlement for 18 March 2009.
 

Attachments

I think the person in charge of the Fed communications should be shot. Honestly, how can an organization like the Fed, with, basically, the entire world hanging on their every word, screw this up so badly. It boggles the mind!
 
What really is so sobering about this, is that at work, I meet regularly over lunch with a group of guys who share an interest in trading. They all only have experience with stock trading and options. Futures are a completely different world for them. Little by little I've been telling them about what I do. I even opened a small account which I funded with roughly 2500 USD on 01 Jan 2009. I did this to prove to them that what I do is possible and that it doesn't require a substantial amount of money, i.e. my regular trading accounts are much larger. One of the frequent comments that have come up is that what I do can't be done with just a small account.

As of last week Friday, that account closed at 10,300. Yes, real money, real account, trading first a 1 lot, followed by a 2 lot, with a very rare 4 lot. All of this over the course of 2 months and 1 week. Suffice it to say, everyone was impressed and eager to get started.

As of yesterday, I told them to disregard everything that we had discussed and stay far away. These are guys that really can't afford to get in. Not only that but some of them were thinking about supplemental income etc. I played yesterday over and over again in my mind, thinking about the phone calls, and the "but you said" conversations that would have resulted from a day like yesterday. It's a crazy world we live in. Even crazier when it comes to money. The potential life impacting scenarios that went through my mind thinking about several people at work talking about getting wiped out in the futures market all thanks to me telling them about futures sends a chill down my spine.
 
Caveat emptor, amico...

At any rate, the Chinese curse has come true and we're living in interesting times, indeed. All sorts of bad things are happening to all sorts of people, some of them completely innocent.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

Caveat emptor, amico...

At any rate, the Chinese curse has come true and we're living in interesting times, indeed. All sorts of bad things are happening to all sorts of people, some of them completely innocent.
More...

You can say that again.

I wonder if the Fed had the eventual close of the 30 year and 10 year yesterday within their calculations of possible scenarios. Specifically I would love to have seen the various slides presented to Bernanke regarding probabilities of various outcomes. I'm going to make a wild guess and say that even they didt not expect yesterday's result or at the very least it was far down the list of expected outcomes, all in one day.
 
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