Hourly signal is choppy so I'm on hold for now. I will wait for my times. No additional trades other than a quick 2 tick scalp short towards the lows. I had to be quick and it would certainly have become a 2 tick loss had I waited.
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Bond Trader 2008 (Swing Trading Bond futures, Stocks, and ETF's)
- Thread starter johnpinochet
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Quote from johnpinochet:
Pre-market 08 Aug 2008
0537 CST
Times for today:
0653
0929
1201
Possible times I'm experimenting with:
0829
1045
1257
WGSR
116 100
115 175
Balance point
115 24
Intuitive take
Higher through 1200 and then lower into the close.
As of 0829 CST 1 lot traders should be up a minimum of 16 ticks.
All you needed to know was the first time and the first WGSR of 116 100. Knowing that a time of 0829 is coming up and that we are in the middle of a rally with some strength should have given you the confidence to take additional longs as late as 0817 to 0823.
0833 CST
What a glorious move from 116 10. Absolutely textbook.
By the way, if you were thinking of shorting at 0829 CST you have completely misunderstood what I am doing here.
Price behaviour at key levels and key times tells you everything. It wasn't telling me to short. Maybe to be cautious, but certainly not to short.
What a glorious move from 116 10. Absolutely textbook.
By the way, if you were thinking of shorting at 0829 CST you have completely misunderstood what I am doing here.
Price behaviour at key levels and key times tells you everything. It wasn't telling me to short. Maybe to be cautious, but certainly not to short.
Quote from johnpinochet:
Intuitive take
Higher through 1200 and then lower into the close.
OK, it is 0837 CST. I've bagged more than my daily limit. I will probably not post anymore today. If something solid comes up maybe I will. I will also check my remaining times.
Here are my parting words. Nothing is perfect. Making predictions can be a tough business. Here's the deal, even if my above quote doesn't come true, i.e. that we continue to head higher through 1200 and then lower into the close, IT HAS come true enough to have made you over 20 ticks, if you had bought a single lot around 116 00. In other words, your trade would have been based on nothing more than buying at a key support line, and holding for time. I don't know about you but if a guy gives me a one hour plus window to make money doing nothing, I'm not going to quibble if we don't go all the way to 1200.
After action report for 08 Aug 2008
Just taking my remaining 2 primary times for the day, a 1 lot trader should have a net 10 additional ticks for the day.
Total 26 ticks net for a 1 lot trader today.
I annotated the chart on what I would have done for the third time had I been awake.
The above trades are conservative based only on the primary three times and my 116 10 level which I mentioned a few times as being important.
FYI, I engaged in many more trades not shown here, for the most part adding to my position and in two cases getting in much earlier than indicated, i.e. my entry short on the second time line was actually much earlier at 116 16. It was pretty obvious at that time that we would test 116 10.
I did not trade the third time line. There was no point, i.e. why not end on a high note.
(Chart is EST and posted times here are CST.)
Just taking my remaining 2 primary times for the day, a 1 lot trader should have a net 10 additional ticks for the day.
Total 26 ticks net for a 1 lot trader today.
I annotated the chart on what I would have done for the third time had I been awake.
The above trades are conservative based only on the primary three times and my 116 10 level which I mentioned a few times as being important.
FYI, I engaged in many more trades not shown here, for the most part adding to my position and in two cases getting in much earlier than indicated, i.e. my entry short on the second time line was actually much earlier at 116 16. It was pretty obvious at that time that we would test 116 10.
I did not trade the third time line. There was no point, i.e. why not end on a high note.
(Chart is EST and posted times here are CST.)
Attachments
That should be an additional 16 ticks on the remaining two times.
I posted an additional 10 ticks because that is what I traded on a 1 lot on my conservative entries for the second time only. I didn't trade the third time but any reader here trading a 1 lot could have gotten an additional 6 ticks on the third time line.
I posted an additional 10 ticks because that is what I traded on a 1 lot on my conservative entries for the second time only. I didn't trade the third time but any reader here trading a 1 lot could have gotten an additional 6 ticks on the third time line.
Starting next week I will start tapering down on my posts. I will try to limit myself to a pre and post post, i.e. two posts a day. Posting is time consuming and in going over my posts I notice that I've made my point many many times. Eventually I will take a break from posting.
If I had the time I would program an application to automatically post my entries and exits however, why bother? Time is money as they say. I'd rather analyze cycles.
If I had the time I would program an application to automatically post my entries and exits however, why bother? Time is money as they say. I'd rather analyze cycles.
Tuesday August 12 2008
0726 CST
Here are the times:
0717
0949
Possible time:
0929
0717 may have been the trade of the day, sorry but I just logged in now.
Hourly system gave a buy signal at 0029 CST today.
Targets today are 116 16 to 116 20. I think we have more upside left in the bonds. I'm not getting in until after the report.
0726 CST
Here are the times:
0717
0949
Possible time:
0929
0717 may have been the trade of the day, sorry but I just logged in now.
Hourly system gave a buy signal at 0029 CST today.
Targets today are 116 16 to 116 20. I think we have more upside left in the bonds. I'm not getting in until after the report.
0731 CST
Just waiting to see how much is retraced...looking to go long but could change.
Just waiting to see how much is retraced...looking to go long but could change.
0734 CST
Last post for this time frame. It is a waiting game. I'll wait and see how much of the spike up is retraced. Still looking to go long but as mentioned may change mind.
Later.
Last post for this time frame. It is a waiting game. I'll wait and see how much of the spike up is retraced. Still looking to go long but as mentioned may change mind.
Later.
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