Bond Trader 2008 (Swing Trading Bond futures, Stocks, and ETF's)

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Quote from johnpinochet:

0555 CST
Pre-market on 05 Aug 2008

I have the following important times today:

0632
0816
0908
1140
1412

Plot any time frame between 1 - 5 minutes and watch price carefully at these times. Pick a line to be your S/R for that time. Keep an eye on what price does as time progresses. Generally speaking you play these time line levels the same way you would play pivots.

I have 115 22 as a very important time line on my hourly geometric chart.

My hourly chart is in buy signal territory.

Remember today is an FOMC announcement day. Anything could happen. I have no bias today. Should be a good day to make 3 solid trades in the AM.

115 26 is the balance point for today.

115 01 is also important to the downside.
More...

After action report Part I

I don't have time to annotate a chart at the moment, but let me leave you with a couple of comments. I'll post a chart later if time permits.

1) Look at the times. In particular look at the Hail Mary pass I gave you for the last time of the day. Imagine you watched all of those signals pass you by. The last can't possibly work can it? Well it did, and very well. Plot the last time on a 1 minute chart. Plot all of them.

2) Look at the price levels I mentioned today.

Bottom line, if someone wants to save me the time and post a 5 min chart with the times and levels, feel free. If not, I'll post in about 8 - 12 hours.
 
After action report part II for 05 Aug 2008

As promised, here is the chart. The chart is in EST by the way, and the times I posted are CST.

The chart speaks for itself.

Get ready for another day. I'll post the same observations if time permits.

By the way, plotted on the 1 min it is jaw dropping. I can't fit everything on a single 1 min jpeg, hence the 3 min.
 

Attachments

0819 CST

OK. I know you won't believe me but here is the first time for the AM in the ZB:

0641

Yeah, I know, it's OK. I wouldn't believe me either if I were you.

So, let's continue on. Here are the remaining times for today:

0917
1149

I won't be trading after that.

I'll have some levels in a few minutes.
 
Decisive break below 114 305 is key, which we just did.

Targets are 114 160 and 114 145.

I can't post anymore I've already missed and ideal entry on the above.
 
0833 CST

I think it is safe to say that today is a waterfall down day. I've been simply shorting at key levels. Fortunately I've already bagged my daily limit when I started posting here, otherwise I would be pretty ticked at missing that ideal entry on the trade I posted about. In any event, I got in. I've already taken profits per my late entry rule. I've added and I'm holding for the above posted targets.

Watch closely as several times price has stopped, consolidated and resulted in a "V" day.
 
0843 CST
Out of everything between 114 210 and 114 220. Will look to go short again soon.

Watch this upcoming time closely.

BTW, the hourly has been short since late yesterday afternoon.
 
JP's Observations

Never say "I'm playing with the house's money." If you entered a trade you are working for the money. If you exit with a profit you have been paid for your work. You are an administrator of a plan and you are working hard for your money. Never forget that. How would your boss feel if you took such a cavalier attitude with corporate funds?
 
0856 CST
Anyone know what happend during the 1 min time frame right around 0850? I'm having some PC problems and I thought I saw the ZB drop several ticks in a matter of seconds. I don't trust my prints at the moment. All I know is I went short at 114 185 prior to the event and got out at 114 120 shortly thereafter. A few ticks beyond my target plus the spike down plus my PC problems was a sign for me to get out.
 
i bet treasuries tank here because CBs are going to be forced to unwind a bunch of bonds that theyve been buying in order to rig the dollar from going lower.
 
0902 CST

Here's the deal. Today is what I call an outlier day both profit wise as well as price wise. You should have more than gained back any losses you made this week. Any day you have setups on a 1 - 5 minute chart that involve simply selling a break below the bottom of a rectangle formation, you know that you are making more money than usual. I count at least 6 points where this occurred today.

Here is another sign that today is unusual. I hit 10 RT's prior to 1200. As you know from reading this journal, I almost never go beyond 4 - 6 RT's in any given day. I have posted recently that I'm trading a lot more than usual the last few months. Sign of the times?

So, back to the original question, what do you do now? On the one hand you have the belief that a good trader should be able to trade day in and day out at any time. On the other hand you have the belief (actually fact) that we all have periods of peak function and we should strive to recognize when those periods are, capitalize on them and then rest. If you have any basic knowledge of physiology, you know this is true. What will I do? I'll compromise and wait for this last time to occur. Hopfeully it will be a Hail Mary pass. I can't promise anything though. We have far exceeded my expectations for today.
 
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