Bond Trader 2008 (Swing Trading Bond futures, Stocks, and ETF's)

[johnpinochet]

How to play yesterday's times.

I gave two times. The most important was the second but that doesn't matter. Look at price activity at 1310. Draw a horizontal line bisecting the bar, or draw two lines, one for the high and one for the low. Now watch and wait, looking for price activity at that line. Use your indicator of choice to help, however it can be as simple as breaks above or below the line with an eye on volume.

That is it.

Finally, there is always chop. As I posted, I had trouble for a few hours in the AM. After the 1022 post, everything, and I mean everything clicked.

 

[johnpinochet]

Also, on a side note, the rule of three strikes and you're out, worked very well today in terms of three attempts at the high in the AM, leading to many wonderful shorting opportunities after 1022 CST.

 

[johnpinochet]

Anyone know what this 16 tick run up in the bonds was all about at around 0925 CST? As a rule I don't watch the news.

 

[BondTrader50]

Paulson, No bailout

 

[JamesVU2000]

HA HA. Give me a break. They lies just keep piling up like crazy!

 

[johnpinochet]

Thanks. I was sitting on roughly a 2000 USD profit. I nearly gave all of it back. The stops and the stop limit order on IB don't always work.

 

[JamesVU2000]

I was sitting on a 12k profit and gave half back too.

 

[johnpinochet]

Very important numbers that I have for today:

117 16
117 01
116 24
116 16

My thoughts are that if 117 01 holds as resistance we may test the lows again. This market has been very chaotic for me the last couple of days as my bias has been big time short. Today everything lined up and I was short 4 ZB and 2 ZN. Something told me to close out on all at 116 16 AND I did not. I should have listened to my spidey sense.

This shows you how stupid it is to be overly confident. I had this labelled as a redemption day from the get go. I even took a 30 minute break to take a walk and get coffee as I KNEW we would break 116 16. Yeah right. So was giving up that money worth the 3 dollar coffee?

 

[johnpinochet]

Just an FYI. I can't post real time, but I am short again at 116 29. My target is 116 16 - 116 19.

I'll bail if we show strength above 117 01 - 117 03.

 

[johnpinochet]

Out for small loss. I'm following the ES as well, and the way the ES chart looks (scary) I think even though my analysis leads me to believe bonds should drop 2 - 4 points over the course of a few weeks, I think it is best to stay out or lean towards a long bias in the bonds.

Confusing? Yes.