Bond Trader 2008 (Swing Trading Bond futures, Stocks, and ETF's)

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Tuesday, 15 April 2008 0647 hrs CST

ZB
Something significant will happen between 0720 and 0750 based on the 30 minute cycle and Gann study I completed over the weekend.

Based on the 5 minute cycles my times are as follows:

0755
0845

That is it for now. The first is a window because it is based on a 30 minute study. The next two are specific times, give or take 5 minutes on either side.

I will probably only trade these three time periods.

Good trading!
 
OK, last trade coming up at 0845. I may or may not take it. I'd still like to continuing shorting but I don't know if I'll get three excellent shorts in a row out of today. If we climb higher over the next 15 minutes, I would look again to short. If we stay down here, I would be tempted to buy, however it would be a lower lot trade.

Good trading!
 
Believe it or not, I'm not showing a lot of WGSR activity down here at 118 16 so I'm inclined to believe that continuing to short right here, right now is risky. Maybe at 0845.
 
0845 CST

No way that I will buy this market. I missed that drop once we broke 118 16 it was all over.

This post is probably a contrary indicator by the way.

In any event, I'm done. The two trades of the day were earlier.

Good Trading!
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

Tuesday, 15 April 2008 0647 hrs CST

ZB
Something significant will happen between 0720 and 0750 based on the 30 minute cycle and Gann study I completed over the weekend.

Based on the 5 minute cycles my times are as follows:

0755
0845

That is it for now. The first is a window because it is based on a 30 minute study. The next two are specific times, give or take 5 minutes on either side.

I will probably only trade these three time periods.

Good trading!
More...

0850 CST

I know that there are a lot of people who will come to this thread after the fact and will not believe anything written here.

Here is the chart. Re-read what I posted above, BEFORE those times. Completely throw out any trades until after the 0730 report. My standard technique documented here is to buy/sell pullbacks based on the market reaction immediately after the report. That is not for everyone, and really isn't my cup of tea these days. So, what are we left with from the above post? We patiently wait for 0750 - 0755. The red line and cirlce on the chart is 0749. Any sell short around that time is a standard textbook trade. You are looking at roughly 16 ticks per contract, especially based on the 30 minute time studies.

No worries, I didn't get 16 ticks out of the trade either, but 8 - 10 is good enough!
 

Attachments

Important dates coming up on SKF.

17 April 2008

and

22 April 2008

My best guess, given the violent moves is that the 17th might be a good time to take any profits obtained from an earlier entry. Heck if you got in anywhere around 109 to 112, you might even consider exiting now at 120.

My calculations show 120 followed by 130 is possible BUT this stock is tricky.
 
0948 CST

118 12 is an excellent target for this latest short assuming you got in around 118 20. Yes we might break the lows of the day, but when you stop hoping and start working with legitimate targets you are on your way.
 
Out of all SKF. I had a rather sizable amount of my 401K in it, and decided that I didn't want to risk giving back all that I had gained in less than a week.

So, even though my Gann and standard cycle studies were saying I have a couple more days left, I decided to go with common sense. The stock has a tendency to evaporate substantial gains rather quickly.

One other item that made me reconsider holding longer is the fact that 120 is a very important number if you follow the "cycling through weekly, and higher time frame pivots" as espoused by Frank Dilernia.

That is it from me.
 
1054 CST

We are between 118 16 and 118 17. We are below a 50% median line I use so we are in a sell zone. Ideal entry was 118 20.

Keep a close watch on this. If no decisive break below 118 12 occurs then get out immediately.

For now it looks like a good attempt for the lows of the day will be possible.
 
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