Bond Trader 2008 (Swing Trading Bond futures, Stocks, and ETF's)

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John,

The Financials see to want to head up, even if just a bit which puts SKF under pressure.. Great buy at 105.. UYG will have to do 35 for this to happen which looks hard as there is A LOT of resistance from 32.5 up.. If there are no bombs dropped on Monday these are possible..

I am heavily in Homebuilders right now.. what a profitable set of stocks.. ETF is XHB which seems to have 23 in the cards..

DRYS.. I have a buy trigger over yesterday's high which I will keep lowering.. basically I want to buy a 5 day high.. or $50..

Good trading..

Rashid..
 
Quote from retire45:

John,

The Financials see to want to head up, even if just a bit which puts SKF under pressure.. Great buy at 105.. UYG will have to do 35 for this to happen which looks hard as there is A LOT of resistance from 32.5 up.. If there are no bombs dropped on Monday these are possible..

I am heavily in Homebuilders right now.. what a profitable set of stocks.. ETF is XHB which seems to have 23 in the cards..

DRYS.. I have a buy trigger over yesterday's high which I will keep lowering.. basically I want to buy a 5 day high.. or $50..

Good trading..

Rashid..
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Rashid,

Thanks for your observations. My SKF is a terrible example of how to trade. The only thing I did right was to lighten the load by half per my earlier post.

I'm pretty happy I got out of GLD where I posted!

John
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

Very Important Numbers for the ZB

121 00
120 26
120 22
120 08

By the way, I started writing my previous post right around 0620. The Jun ZB was just beginning to approach a number I thought important. I even considered a buy there, but decided against it as I didn't have time to manage the trade.

In any event, that number is 119 28. Keep an eye on it, as well as the other numbers from previous posts if we happen to go down that way today.

If you can figure out why I chose all of the numbers mentioned in this post today, you no longer need to read this journal.
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For some reason 120 28 is marked versus the correct 120 26. Here is the corrected chart.

Two important points. 120 12 which I emphasized is really the only number you needed to have 3 very successful trades today. Another point is that on the 0824 5 min bar price NEVER made it to the 50% median between 120 08 and 119 28. Think about that and think about V days.
 

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Saturday 22 Mar 2008 0855 CST

This won't be long.

I'm documenting an observation I made during my studies of the ZB. I've spent several hours going through this month's ZB 5 min bar chart. I broke out some of my market geometry books as a reference and began looking at a rather quick and dirty way of getting cycles off of a chart with very little effort.

Here is my observation. After playing with various shapes, I settled on one, and took the midpoint of this shape and drew a horizontal line. This line happens to be 119 28. 119 28 is significant to me for reasons other than geometry. It is a WGSR number. So, make a note of 119 28. It is important.
 
Saturday 22 Mar 2008 2221 CST

I've been thinking a lot about MoveTimer's method over the last several months. Probably at least as long as I started reading his thread. The thing he helped me with is to realize that calling a cycle high or cycle low really isn't important. It is more important to make a note of the price level at the specified time and observe what price does at this level as time passes. This is much more productive and actually removes a lot of stress out of posting turning points in time. I believe he called these times inflection points, but I can't recall for sure.

In some ways we were kind of doing the same thing, i.e. calling for specific times, but as I mentioned, the math behind his calls is more significant.

I'm going to add a bit of commentary, a la MoveTimer to my ZB observations. The format will be the times to watch for today, and the most likely duration of a move. The most likely duration of a move is not set in stone, and is simply an indication to you that if the low was 15 five minute bars ago, and my published likely duration is 30 five minute bars, you may want to be cautious about going long. As always, the information I post is for informational purposes only.

Also, I'm going to post my ZB bias less often as technically it doesn't really matter. It can change in a matter of seconds. I have various cycle spread ratios that are dynamically adjusted that provide me an up to the second bias on the ZB.
 
The method I'll use for posting the cycles will be very simple and not like the method from 2007 where I posted times that were based on neural network analysis.

The method is a very simple variation of many different market geometry techniques. If you have no idea what market geometry is then google it and read some books. Some of the published works are interesting to say the least.

In conclusion, expect a few additional lines on times, and levels, and number of bars in a given move beginning sometime this week.
 
Sunday 23 Mar 2008 0133 hrs

GLD
GLD is completely below my bottom channel line of 95. I would stay far away from GLD for 3 - 5 more trading days. Possible targets of 88.73 and 86.00. A very outside target of 77.96 is possible. I'm not saying these targets are possible in 3 - 5 days. I'm just saying they are possible targets if the downtrend continues. I will not be looking to buy for several days.

SKF
SKF dropped below my bottom channel near 115. If I had no position, I would stay far away from it. As it stands now, I'm looking to take a loss in it at a hopefully better price than the close last week. Price levels of 121.48 and 127.96 on the upside and 102.83 and 92.70 on the downside.

30 year yield
This has been in a very strong downtrend since my 13 Mar 2008 post. We are completely outside of my lower bottom channel. I see no need to assess for several days. Obviously this means ZB has been strong to the upside.

ZB
No opinion. I'll be providing times and levels later.

Dow
This has been on a buy signal since 18 Mar 2008, if you have the stomach for wild swings.
 
24 Mar 2008 0423 CST

0630 CST will be an important time today based on an hourly chart. Watch this time carefully. Price levels of 120 12 and 119 21 are it for now. Of course keep track of all levels mentioned so far.

Cycle length of 11 hours. Please note that I'm not saying a lot because I assume that rational adults are reading.

That is it for now. More later if time permits.
 
Continued

Here are the times for today based on a shorter time frame, i.e. 1 - 5 min chart analysis.

0404, 0604, 0804, 1004 and 1204

Watch carefully what happens at each level.

So, for example, for the 0404 time, draw a horizontal line at either 120 18 or 120 19. Either one is fine. Keep an eye on that price level throughout the day. Do the same for the other times.
 
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