Bond Trader 2008 (Swing Trading Bond futures, Stocks, and ETF's)

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Here is a 5 min for today.

If you had trouble trading the ZB on 12 - 14 March 2008, you need to review everything related to support, resistance, cycles, volume and price. I would suggest Anek's thread on the AHG method, as well as Spyder's postings on the futures method of trading. Like anything in life, pick out the solid parts that make sense, leave the rest alone until you can go back and review the items you didn't understand the first time through. I know more than one person has summarized both methods. Obviously, you can review my method as well, but that would take reading both Journals and gleaning the method from my posts.

The problem is, if you had trouble with the ZB on 12 - 14 Mar 2008, you need to go back to the basics. It is also possible that you need to reconsider what you want out of trading the ZB. You have to be able to trade days like the above in order to see you through the bad days. If you can't even trade the good days, then there is a problem.

I think many times in Journals 1 and 2 I expressed my disgust with days where the bonds traded within a 4 tick range for hours on end. We are in a period of time where you should be maximizing your returns.
 

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That will be it from me until next week. I haven't had time to do a thorough analysis, but I wouldn't be buying the dollar or the Dow/SP.

I can't believe the news I'm reading. Actually, I can. I've been expecting this since 27 Feb 2007, however it really took its time getting here. Remember the head fakes that CFC gave us? I think I shorted CFC around the upper 20's and gave up in disgust when Bank of America came in. How stupid does BOA look now? How about TMA? They were supposed to be the choir boys of the mortgage industry! Now look at them, almost bankrupt.

Bottom line, I'm glad I took the biggest position in gold I ever have in my life. I can't even recommend it now because what we are in looks suspiciously like a possible blow off, but it is the only thing I am in long term. ZB is the only thing I trade intra-day / daily when the trade comes up.
 
Pre-market Monday 17 March 2008, 0426 hrs CST

There Will Be Blood

I can declare the above with conviction today. Per my last post, I wouldn't touch stocks, the dollar or much of anything with a 10 foot pole today. This is one of those days where a ton of money will be made in day trading.

I'll go a step further and say that something big will happen between today, and Friday this week. I'll even further state that I'm not sure I want to even be in any market at all.

So, day trade cautiously today, and be prepared for anything. I suspect today we will have a full point move in the ZB, perhaps even a full 2 points in either direction.

I don't mean to be melodramatic, but I'm prepared if trading is suspended, and I'm prepared if I can't access my funds for days, weeks even. Are you?
 
1027 hrs CST

This is an update on my long term holdings. Gold has been essentially close to 100% of my entire retirement account for a while now. I decided to shift allocation a bit, and I now have 20% in SKF. SKF is the ProShares UltraShort Financial ETF. I put a buy in after 0700 hrs CST when we started dropping and 140.00 was my initial target for support. We went on to 135. In any event I'm in at 140 and I'll hold this for a target of anything over 150.00. We already did it earlier this morning, and I think we will visit the high and then some, if not today, certainly by the close of this week.

SKF will probably be a short term play, from 1 - 5 days. As I've stated before, the Fed has a way of wrecking the best laid plans when it comes to the short ETF plays. 27 Feb 2007 and 16 Aug 2007 come to mind.

As far as bonds are concerned, I'm afraid I've been repeating myself too much. Textbook price movement. One point move down, and now a one point move back up. Another fine day.
 
Took profits on 50% of my gold holdings in the retirement account. Out of most of SKF for small 2 dollar profit (yeah I know, I don't day trade stocks, but the buy entry was late, and the Fed is up to something.)

So now I sit with 40% GLD and 5% SKF. The rest in cash.

Reason for change of heart? Look back at every one of the key down days last year. Just when it looked like betting the farm on SRS, SKF, QID was a great idea, the PPT and the Fed step in. Usually over the weekend or before the market opens to maximize impact. I see potentially the same thing now, and thought that it is better to take a lot off of the table.

I still think this will be an interesting week. I'd also like to know how I can buy a investment bank for 1% of what it was worth weeks ago. Oh, and do this over the weekend, without shareholder approval.

Come on! How much is their property worth, i.e. the various buildings in New York etc?
 
Quote from johnpinochet:



Come on! How much is their property worth, i.e. the various buildings in New York etc?
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Is estimated at 1.2 billion. Sunday they were talking 18+ a share. Somebody not doing something right.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

Important numbers for today:

119 08
119 20
120 12

Keep an eye on these for the rest of the week as well as the numbers from last week.
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Tuesday March 18 2008, 0952 CST

Above numbers were posted yesterday. I repeat, yesterday.

So, how would you have done today, starting as late as 0744 hrs?

See for yourself. I only took the short at A, but there was strong argument for going long at B, and an even better trade would have been shorting from 119 14, which was roughly a 50% median between 119 08 and 119 20.

As for me with the ZB, I'm not doing anything else. The trade of the day was the short at A. Why? The 0730 reports were out of the way, and we had a very obvious signal to the downside using just about any system known to man. Of course, you were looking at my special secret sauce numbers published yesterday and that confirmed what hopefully you already knew.
 

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Quote from DblArrow:

Is estimated at 1.2 billion. Sunday they were talking 18+ a share. Somebody not doing something right.
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Thanks for the info. Yes, I agree, something isn't quite right.
 
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