Bond Trader 2007

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Friday, November 30 2007 0716 hrs CST

It looks like we may have a really big day today in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq.

No changes in my post from yesterday. Any short around 118 00 was a good entry. I'm looking for at least a full point move down over the next few days. Maybe more.

Normal caveats apply.

Some key stocks look really good. In particular DRYS and RIO gave me signals a few days ago. AAPL looks good too.
 
0816 CST Pardon me while I revert back to my old self. The ZBZ7 is now 116 22.

While this is a longer term trade for me, I learned long ago that anytime the 30 year contract gives you a full point plus profit on your entry you should take it. With that in mind, I'm exiting half soon, a possible first target of 116 14.

I have a very important WGSR at 116 12.

In plain English, I will exit 1 ZBZ7 anywhere between 116 22 and 116 12 or better.
 
Quick rundown on some stocks using my method.

DIA: A buy signal on the close of 27 Nov 2007

GLD: High established on 26 Nov 2007 was just another ideal sell entry.

QLD: Same as DIA.

Here is where it gets interesting:

RIMM: On 19 Nov 2007 my studies showed a bottom was in place. An aggressive buy could have been made on that date, however the official signal wasn't until 27 Nov 2007.

SRS: Confirmed that something was up for the broader market by signaling its up move was over on 27 Nov 2007.

AAPL: Same as RIMM.

BIDU: 23 Nov 2007 signaled the bottom was in. 26 Nov 2007 (1 day earlier than anything else) was the official buy signal.

The point? The aggressive, heavily followed momentum stocks really provided some early indication of the next phase of the market.

Caveat: My signals can last as short as 1 - 3 days. Anything can happen. Use caution.
 
Quote from Bernard111:

Don't you rollover to March 08 ?
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I may today, and I definitely will next week. I usually trade through the last week of the month prior, i.e. last trading week of November for the December contract.

This area here between 116 16 and 116 20's is very strong so I may exit the second one as well today and look for another short entry next week. I think there will be a few more shorting opportunities next week, prior to the next buy signal.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

I may today, and I definitely will next week. I usually trade through the last week of the month prior, i.e. last trading week of November for the December contract.
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NICE SALE @ 118!

March is more liquid than December, no reason to trade December, unless you have an emotional attachment to 2007.

good trading!

el surdo
 
07 December 2007 0948 hrs CST

No reason to post as plan from last week is still in place and what to do has been obvious.

Recap from last week:
11-29-07 01:42 PM

Thursday, 29 November 2007 0644 CST

There really hasn't been much reason to update this for obvious reasons, i.e. market direction has been obvious.

Possible warning of a temporary bottom in 30 year yield came on 26 Nov 2007. The next two days action seemed to confirm the warning.

I would play this by selling rally attempts at key levels. Right at this moment, on the hourly ZBZ7, it looks like the ZBZ7 has found temporary support at 116 16. I have a key WGSR at 117 16 and another at 118 16.

Bottom line, the long term daily chart of the 30 year yield is about to signal a buy for me. Obviously this means the ZBZ7 is a sell.
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as well as:

11-30-07 01:17 PM

Friday, November 30 2007 0716 hrs CST

It looks like we may have a really big day today in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq.

No changes in my post from yesterday. Any short around 118 00 was a good entry. I'm looking for at least a full point move down over the next few days. Maybe more.

Normal caveats apply.

Some key stocks look really good. In particular DRYS and RIO gave me signals a few days ago. AAPL looks good too.
More...

What to do this week? Here was my plan:

11-30-07 02:47 PM

I may today, and I definitely will next week. I usually trade through the last week of the month prior, i.e. last trading week of November for the December contract.

This area here between 116 16 and 116 20's is very strong so I may exit the second one as well today and look for another short entry next week. I think there will be a few more shorting opportunities next week, prior to the next buy signal.
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It is worth noting that Brazil, specifically EWZ and RIO have regained their losses from the most recent crash.

AAPL looks solid and is approaching its old high.

For future reference, we are down another full point plus from the 30 Nov 2007 post, having had the opportunity to load up heavily again on a rally.

It doesn't get any better than this, at least for a short term swing type of trade.

Enjoy!
 
Quote from cashmoney69:

whats your p/l this year so far in % or $ value?
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I understand your interest, however, I could put down anything. How would you know? Another journal author I respect got trashed for posting financial details that some felt were too good to be true.

I'm not looking for business and I have no delusions of grandeur (other than the occasional Bruce Willis movie reference).
I posted real-time for awhile. It would take time to gather the real-time posts and correlate with my statements to prove the figures. Given what I've said in this reply, I'm not sure what I would get out of spending 2 - 3 hours a day reading all of my posted pages and looking at my statements so that you and others can confirm the numbers.

I'm focusing on a simpler less stressful method both with posting and with trading.
 
Monday, 10 December 2007 0754 hrs CST

View remains the same as previous market observations post. 30 year yield on the Daily remains in a buy hence the ZB remains in a sell.

With that being said, let's not be foolish. This has been a good run and if you are in multiple contracts you should take some off.

I was asked via PM what my current thoughts are. The above post is it. Take some or all profits and wait for another shorting opportunity. In particular what would I do with important reports this week? The same: I would exercise caution and may exit all, waiting for another opportunity later. Capturing a 3 - 6 point move in the ZB is possible (I've never done it), but there certainly are a lot of 16 tick to 1 1/2 point moves within a 3 - 6 point move.
 
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