Bond Trader 2007

[johnpinochet]

While I wish it weren't so, my observations on various ETF's are that we remain in a sell mode in the Dow, S&P 500, Brazil, and China.

Finally, GLD and IAU both signaled a sell on 09 November 2007 and both look really bad. In particular yesterday was a dramatic continuation signal on my daily.

The above can turn on a dime with the Fed doing what it does.

 

[johnpinochet]

19 November 2007 1026 CST

I wish I had mentioned SRS in my Friday post. It passed above a 50% level I use in determining a buy trade. It is a 50% of a recent peak to trough. It did this on 14 Nov 2007 with confirmation on 15 Nov 2007.

I've made a killing in SRS this year.

Observations remain the same as the last post. Keep a tight leash on your positions. I said everything can change on a dime with the Fed. If you don't know what I'm talking about just look back at 16 Aug 2007. A lot of people went to bed on the night of 16 Aug 2007 with huge short profits. And then pre-market on the 17th, the Fed does its move.

I'm concentrating on the ZBZ7 and Gold. Watch both very carefully.

 

[johnpinochet]

Goodness! I just saw a quote for CFC, Countrywide. 10.77. Study that chart from 29 May 2007 to today carefully. Read up on the the CEO as well as the BoA move to learn how the big dogs behave behind the scenes.

Even if you don't trade stocks, there is an enormous amount of knowledge and education to be obtained from the above.

 

[johnpinochet]

20 November 2007 0854 CST
If you haven't already, I would look to taking partial profits or even all on any remaining ZBZ7 longs from my earlier post.

 

[Sponger]

Hey John, just curious if you have any firsthand knowledge of how FNMA and FHR paper is trading on the Street......have you heard of any huge increase in trading volume on the sell side, ie institutions dumping their holdings?

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from Sponger:

Hey John, just curious if you have any firsthand knowledge of how FNMA and FHR paper is trading on the Street......have you heard of any huge increase in trading volume on the sell side, ie institutions dumping their holdings?

Sponger,

I would love to have that kind of knowledge, but I'm just an ordinary guy trading the early morning Central Standard Time (CST) hours when I'm able.

 

[johnpinochet]

I'll have an update sometime before or slightly after tomorrow's (29 Nov 2007) CBOT open on the 30 year.

 

[Sponger]

Quote from johnpinochet:

Sponger,

I would love to have that kind of knowledge, but I'm just an ordinary guy trading the early morning Central Standard Time (CST) hours when I'm able.

Thanks for the update, I like this journal - not too many people here trading the bond markets.

 

[johnpinochet]

Thursday, 29 November 2007 0644 CST

There really hasn't been much reason to update this for obvious reasons, i.e. market direction has been obvious.

Possible warning of a temporary bottom in 30 year yield came on 26 Nov 2007. The next two days action seemed to confirm the warning.

I would play this by selling rally attempts at key levels. Right at this moment, on the hourly ZBZ7, it looks like the ZBZ7 has found temporary support at 116 16. I have a key WGSR at 117 16 and another at 118 16.

Bottom line, the long term daily chart of the 30 year yield is about to signal a buy for me. Obviously this means the ZBZ7 is a sell.

As stated before, keep in mind that this all can turn on a dime, and I'm not forecasting weeks/months into the future. It simply looks like a possible multi-day decline in the ZBZ7.

 

[johnpinochet]

1415 Selling 2 at 117 30. Will look to sell more up to 118 and change.