Bond Trader 2007

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Quote from johnpinochet:

Not boasting, just sharing to hopefully help people out. SRS has been very good to me in the 401K. Take a look at the daily and the hourly chart. Talk about a cycling chart! Buy approaches to 95-100 and exit as it approaches to 112 - 116.

It is the closest thing to a futures contract I've found in the world of stocks. I'm sure there are others but this one is fine by me for now.
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My thoughts are we will bust through to 121 or better, however, it is time to be cautious as the close today is 114.30. Longer term, I'm looking for 150.
 
Here is 15 min INDU chart with WGSR lines along with my lines. I don't think it is coincidence by chance rather the similar ideas behind. The advantage of John's lines is clear stated price levels calculated in advance, I cannot do the same. Unfortunately there is no WGSR near open, it was nice short opportunity.
 

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MoveTimer,

I am flattered. Thank you for looking into this closely. For the record, I want to state publicly that I do believe your method to be superior to my WGSR method. You have a lot of theory and math background behind yours. My theory has pattern recognition and some college level math behind it. I have passed it through a neural net but I find I can do better by treating it just like support and resistance with a small "X" factor that is more intuitive than anything else. This small "X" factor is an indication on whether the WGSR level will hold or be broken. I think my bond market experience comes into play there.

I'll try to post the levels prior to market open over the next few days. It is difficult between family and other obligations. I may not be able to today.

FYI to anyone following along, I believe this WGSR theory will work on the more liquid stocks. It is working on SRS, hint hint. To be honest I think it will work well on any stock that is essentially an aggregate or fund of stocks. In particular I think it is working well right now on the banking, financial, mortgage and housing stocks.

Now if it would only spot the next AHM I can go live on an island somewhere.

I'm short CFC (Countrywide) since 28 by the way. Looking for the low 20's to high teens.
 
Bond levels

110 16
110 05
109 29
109 21

YMU7 Levels

Use the one's published yesterday if we can get back that far. At the moment I can't calculate lower levels due to my lack of YM data. Personally I think things look bad for the Dow, but I've had a dreadful feeling about the Dow since 27 Feb 2007, so we can't go by feelings alone. I'll post more later, if time permits.
 
FYI on non-bond issue.

I've posted about SRS and mentioned that it is a cycling stock. I wanted to mention that I got out at 115 yesterday (Wednesday) based on my posted observations. Granted, it was premature, as the stock went up to 121.29 today (Thursday), BUT I'd rather have the profit I made from buying the cycle low and selling near a projected top than holding SRS now that it closed at 109.99. Yeah, you read that right, 3 times in a row as it broke through its yearly high, it has closed down for the day, each time. I'll be watching carefully for another buy opportunity.

My only remaining issue now is what to do with my AAPL and CFC puts. I more than doubled my money in a matter of a few days but with today's reversal I'm sitting at a 30% gain only on these puts. Should have gotten out on the double gain.
 
I look at the previous post and get goosebumps.

In any event, because today is so important with the 2 messages, i.e. Bush and Bernacke, I decided to post briefly.

ZB WGSR

111 28
111 23

111 15
111 12

YM WGSR

13408
13353
13208
 
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