Bond Trader 2007

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I played Bob Marley's "Redemption Song" this morning and had a Jamaican style breakfast pre market to determine my levels today.

el surdo
 
Old pirates, yes, they rob i;
Sold I to the merchant ships,
Minutes after they took i
From the bottomless pit.
But my hand was made strong
By the and of the almighty.
We forward in this generation
Triumphantly.
Wont you help to sing
These songs of freedom? -
cause all I ever have:
Redemption songs;
Redemption songs.

Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery;
None but ourselves can free our minds.
Have no fear for atomic energy,
cause none of them can stop the time.
How long shall they kill our prophets,
While we stand aside and look? ooh!
Some say its just a part of it:
Weve got to fulfil de book.

Wont you help to sing
These songs of freedom? -
cause all I ever have:
Redemption songs;
Redemption songs;
Redemption songs.
---
Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery;
None but ourselves can free our mind.
Wo! have no fear for atomic energy,
cause none of them-a can-a stop-a the time.
How long shall they kill our prophets,
While we stand aside and look?
Yes, some say its just a part of it:
Weve got to fulfil de book.
Wont you help to sing
Dese songs of freedom? -
cause all I ever had:
Redemption songs -
All I ever had:
Redemption songs:
These songs of freedom,
Songs of freedom.
 
Quote from Surdo:

I played Bob Marley's "Redemption Song" this morning and had a Jamaican style breakfast pre market to determine my levels today.

el surdo
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Did it work?

Today isn't a redemption day by the way, at least not so far this morning.

It is a nice day, and I think I'll listen to Bob and have a Jamaican meal myself.
 
Quote from MoveTimer:

John,

thanks, I'm waiting in breathless anticipation. Hope you didn't miss YM pivot times today :) Good luck!
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MoveTimer,

Here is the article that broke the story back in 1997.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/blackm/plunge.htm

Since then a number of articles have been written to include most recently in late 2006.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/1026200...e_plunge_protectors_business_john_crudele.htm

Here is the actual report of the President's Working Group. No need to read this as it is rather dry.

http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/reports/hedgfund.pdf

Here is another report by the Working Group indicating that they are still active:

http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/dome...nstitution/terrorism-insurance/pdf/report.pdf

Here are articles by authors who may have taken things a little further than necessary, however still important points are made:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/reality/2005/0403.html

http://www.lewrockwell.com/decoster/decoster114.html

So, how does the above have anything to do with my playful use of the "Working Group" phrase as well as the phrase, "important work is being done here" ?

Well, while I have some misgivings that any single group can successfully manipulate the market, I have no doubt that a single group or groups working together can nudge the market in a certain direction. Like for example, yesterday all eyes were on Asia before Monday's EST/CST open. What if over the weekend the WG decided to focus their influence on the SPI (Australia)? Now of course rationally we all know that is absurd, but what if via whatever data mining techniques they have at their disposal, they've determined that if the SPI moves one way and in a certain pattern after a market plunge the preceding week, that the Western markets will follow suit? Keep in mind that in my more plausible scenario the idea isn't to completely change the course of a bear market. The idea is to guide it in a certain more structured, more rational direction.

The idea goes hand in hand with choosing the lesser of two evils.

Also, why the SPI, why not the HSI or the NIKKEI? If you understand data mining the most obvious choice isn't always the most logical. The most obvious choice isn't always the most profitable or efficient. In any event, my use of the SPI in the above hypothetical example was meant to simply illustrate a possible largest bang for the WG's buck type situation.

How do I use the above in my trading? I admit that I borrowed the phrase "working group" to describe what I believe to be a group of smart money players who are establishing areas of value. They are expending an enormous amount of energy and effort at certain key areas and certain key times, hence my phrase, "important work is being done here."

Is my WG manipulating the market and the same as the official Presidential Working Group? No certainly not. Is my WG truly in the know and have I been able to see the patterns that indicate where they are placing support and resistance points? Yes, I believe my WG represents the smart money and I believe I've determined a way to see the patterns that they are establishing key points of support and resistance, what I term the WGSR. This is not simple eyeball the chart and draw horizontal S/R. This goes beyond that.
 
Yes, I believe my WG represents the smart money and I believe I've determined a way to see the patterns that they are establishing key points of support and resistance, what I term the WGSR. This is not simple eyeball the chart and draw horizontal S/R. This goes beyond that.
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John,

of course I agree, as you know my model based on the similar approach.

Have you read posts of harrytrader? He claimed that he found true model of market manipulation.

If you really found the way of calculating WGSR in advance you should have no more problems with "V" days. It will be very interesting to see WRSR not only for bonds but for indexes too.
 
0832 CST What we do now at 109 29 is very important. My best guess is we move down to test 109 teens, i.e. below 109 19.

109 29 is a very important WGSR.

0839 CST (UPDATE) If you are quick you can play either side of the above number.

Don't forget the 0900 CST report.

Times today are 0848 and 0928 for now.
 
0854 CST Just waiting for the 0900 report to go for another short today. One of the best trades today was going short at 0820 and covering 1/2 on the approach of 109 29. I entered late at 110 02 vs the ideal entry of 110 04. Good for a few ticks.

I didn't play the buy entry once price moved above 110 01. That would have been the signal to take though, for a quick 4 tick net prior to the 0900 report.
 
0902 CST OK, report was favorable to bonds, and we've broken the previous hour's high. Bias has changed to long, and I'll be looking to buy pullbacks today at key levels and times. That is all for now. Shame I didn't take my own advice and play the long side.
 
0925 Something doesn't feel right about this rise from 109 30. I know I said my bias has shifted to buy dips, but my spidey sense is tingling.

It is a Friday, and I've made a modest profit for the day. I think I may call it a day.
 
Greetings!

I will be taking a break from posting minute by minute. I've been following other journals on ET and I see that at some point all reach a point of having to scale back due to the amount of time and opportunity lost in the journal.

In addition, I think that at some point my posts became confusing so there really is no point to that either.

I continue to trade as I've described in detail in this journal and these last few months have been truly remarkable in the amounts that can be captured from the daily range. I think that cycles coupled with the unique way of looking at S/R that I've mentioned recently is probably where I will focus all of my time and attention for now.

I'm going to experiment with a single post for the day for now detailing what I believe to be the single two most important S/R numbers for the day. As far as what price does at either level, that is up to you.

Here is the post for today, 10 August 2007:

109 24
109 08

For a few days, I'll post a side note with the YM S/R.

13221
13207
13173
 
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