Bond Trader 2007

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Food for thought. You have to put up with the mind numbing 4 - 6 tick 3 - 4 hour range days, to get a day where something like this occurs, i.e. a spike of 25 ticks.

The problem is, the former is very discouraging and if one is not careful it will prevent you from recognizing and taking the spike.
 
Possible S/R:

108 10
108 06

I'm looking to buy one last time, but I'm cautious. I still have no idea why we had a spike and when you exceed a range usually you cycle back.

Best bet may be to call it a day. Today was definitely an outlier.
 
How I traded today.

Please note that I posted for the first time today at 0519 CST. That is 2 hours prior to market open. I clearly stated that the WGSR was:

108 02
107 27

I even focused on 108 02 despite the fact that the actual support high that everyone else would use was higher. Look back at the previous weeks activity when we were up there. Normal support and resistance would not focus on 108 02.

It took me a lot of time to annotate the chart, so I hope this helps clarify things, both how I use the various S/R I talk about as well as how to realize a mistake was made.

On the chart, "sad" references that I didn't get filled on the order entered around 0519. It would have given me several ticks prior to the market open. On a no news day this trade was a no brainer.
 

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Quote from Bernard111:

So are you telling us that your system gave you a long @ 107 -29/30 but instead you bought prematurely at 108-00?
:confused:
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Reference the chart where I say "out 0741". I wish I had gone long there instead of waiting.

Per the post you quoted, I state I entered late not prematurely.
 
Final chart. This one is phenomenal. This is what we all wait for every day. This made the day and the week for me.

The part where I mention buying with my eyes closed? What led to that? WG indicator was off the charts positive. This was the same reading but in reverse of what I saw earlier in the AM on my buy off of the 108 02 bounce.
 

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Quote from johnpinochet:

Reference the chart where I say "out 0741". I wish I had gone long there instead of waiting.

Per the post you quoted, I state I entered late not prematurely.
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Ok, thanks for clarifying.
 
Quote from MoveTimer:

John,

can you explain more detailed about "working group", of course if it is possible?
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MoveTimer,

I'll try to track down the PDF that is part of any explanation.

To All,

I had planned to post a plan of attack today based on the fact that I can't believe that any reports today would be negative for bond price. I had planned to state that I would be a buyer anywhere between 108 24 and 108 30 in anticipation of a substantial break above 109 00, i.e. an eye towards a 109 16 target.

Well, now there is no need to post. Price has gone as high as 109 11. This really is a bummer as it would have been one of my better calls.

I have no numbers to post as I didn't anticipate the move occurring so early pre-market. I even kept myself from turning on my PC as I accumulate too much screen time 8 hours a day at work.

My gut feel is that something is up for today. It is possible that other markets will allow for a better opportunity, i.e. the YM or ES.

More later....
 
Long on the dip after the report.

Targets for today are 109 28 and 110 05.

I think today is a fire and forget day, ASSUMING the YM and ES and USD cooperate.
 
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