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Bond Trader 2007
- Thread starter johnpinochet
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Quote from johnpinochet:
I got out at 107 05 on the remainder. I'm flat and up for the day. I may trade one last time depending on the setup. We are now completely out of any 5 min and hourly ranges so I need to evaluate numbers from yesterday.
Following the above statement, here is today's activity with yesterday's S/R.
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Quote from johnpinochet:
1003 I'm looking to short between 107 04 and 107 08. I'll hold looking for a break below 107 00.
The key to all of this was what happened yesterday, at the same S/R, as well as were any new S/R's created today?
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Shorting between 107 06 and 107 08, was a legit trade. I had a trade on at 107 05 and 107 06. The moment we traded above 107 08 (1044 CST), I knew something was seriously wrong. I also knew that the chance of a "V" day was approaching. I exited all between 107 08 and 107 09 and closed my eyes and started buying. Initial target was 107 16 with a look to a break higher.
All times were posted in advance. The early morning CP's were actually useful later in the day. Yesterday's S/R's were extremely useful.
All times were posted in advance. The early morning CP's were actually useful later in the day. Yesterday's S/R's were extremely useful.
Notice the first two CP's listed for today, the CP S/R (CPSR) established there and what price did at 1200 and 1300 CST which is 1300 and 1400 EST on the chart.
Last night while doing some data mining on a few months of 1 minute bars I discovered a confirmation signal that complements the various forms of S/R that I've been discussing. There is a tip off that a particular S/R is extremely important. I'll be using this in conjunction with my previously posted material in the pre-market commentary.
Last night while doing some data mining on a few months of 1 minute bars I discovered a confirmation signal that complements the various forms of S/R that I've been discussing. There is a tip off that a particular S/R is extremely important. I'll be using this in conjunction with my previously posted material in the pre-market commentary.
Additional reasons to not take the short I mentioned previously:
My 5 min NN based on all of the S/R studies went long at 107 05.
With the kiss of 107 02 we were approaching the maximum extent of a down cycle range based on a key number from last week.
In other words, price doesn't continue lower forever. At 107 02, a sell order would at most gain 4 ticks to 106 30, but a buy order would gain at least 8 ticks to 107 10 and possibly a lot more if 107 16 became a possibility.
Of course taking a trade right there at 107 02 was not wise (and probably no fill anyway) with no confirmation other than a CPSR, but the CPSR required a move above 107 05.
In any event, I still stand behind the sell I took. I'm just trying to fine tune things to try and spot a "V" day earlier and not give up as many ticks on the exit and reversal.
My 5 min NN based on all of the S/R studies went long at 107 05.
With the kiss of 107 02 we were approaching the maximum extent of a down cycle range based on a key number from last week.
In other words, price doesn't continue lower forever. At 107 02, a sell order would at most gain 4 ticks to 106 30, but a buy order would gain at least 8 ticks to 107 10 and possibly a lot more if 107 16 became a possibility.
Of course taking a trade right there at 107 02 was not wise (and probably no fill anyway) with no confirmation other than a CPSR, but the CPSR required a move above 107 05.
In any event, I still stand behind the sell I took. I'm just trying to fine tune things to try and spot a "V" day earlier and not give up as many ticks on the exit and reversal.
0805 CST I suspect yesterday's chart and numbers may hold up very well today. A decisive break below 107 16 will lead to 107 09 and 107 05. Consolidation here at 107 16 will lead to another test of the highs. My guess is we head lower.
I've been short at 107 16. I'm waiting for 107 10 at a minimum, although my technical first target is 107 09 followed by 107 05.
I've been following my new study, and it appears that a considerable amount of effort has been spent establishing 107 18 as an important area. Look to that area if prices go higher today.
I've been following my new study, and it appears that a considerable amount of effort has been spent establishing 107 18 as an important area. Look to that area if prices go higher today.
0853 CST Out at 107 16. Trade was lasting too long (53 minutes) and after two attempts at 107 14 and failing, I'm not sure where price wants to go.
Rather than reversing, I'm going to re-evaluate.
Rather than reversing, I'm going to re-evaluate.
0857 Long at 107 16. I'll try this with a stop at 107 12.
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