Bond Trader 2007

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0954 CST Bought 1 ZB 107 22. Just 1 to test the waters. 1000 turning point time coming up. Stop is 107 18 to be safe.

I've got major support at 107 21 and 107 19, hence the buy and the stop.
 
1003 CST The 0932 turning point turned out to be one of the better trades. I sat out as we were in the middle of a range, but I did put in an order at 107 26 which didn't get filled. I then cancelled it as I'm loathe to chase a trade down. This time it would have been worth it.

The 1000 trade, which I'm in now looks like we may get 4 ticks out of it.

Since the pattern of the turning points is matching up with my cycle times, I'll go ahead and post that 1208 should be a cycle high in the ZB.

UPDATE 1008 CST
We are kissing 107 19 again, so I'm assuming I will be stopped out. There it goes, stopped out.

UPDATE 1010 CST
OK, so my next time is 1208. My take is that we will drift higher from lows established now, but that it will not go higher than 107 26. I'll be looking to short the ZB at that time.

In retrospect, the 0932 trade really was the second solid trade of the day. I'm still fine tuning my trading strategy with turning points. Bottom line, I should have ignored the middle of the range argument, and went with the direction of the trend. Entry could have been anywhere between 0932 and 0945.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:


UPDATE 1010 CST
OK, so my next time is 1208. My take is that we will drift higher from lows established now, but that it will not go higher than 107 26. I'll be looking to short the ZB at that time.
More...

Just completed a quick YM trade and I'm now back here for an update. Obviously the market has drifted downward vs retracing to 107 26. An excellent short was available at 1035 CST, but not part of my plan today.

I'll be looking carefully now for 1200 and 1208. My hope is to short at 107 21 or better. The only caveat being that with the large downward move already over, it is hard to say what a short there will really do.

In any event, I may pass on the trade and continue with the YM. All in all, a very productive day.
 
1208 CST I don't really see a trade here, unless you want to buy the lows. On a normal day it might be worth the risk. My standard rule of thumb on days where we are roughly 20 ticks down is to only sell retracements. Nothing to do for now.

Done for the day!
 
Turning point times for 05 July 2007:

0928 1000 1036 1104 1144 1204

If I told you the ones from prior to 0900, you wouldn't believe me anyway.

Good Trading!
 
0935 CST I passed on the 0928 turning point trade as my hunch today is that I would rather sell at key levels.

Currently I am in no trade, but looking to short again soon.
 
0938 CST Sold 2 ZB 106 28. This is a small "to get in" trade. Only looking for 4 ticks or so. The discretionary trade was the retracement back to 107 01 recently discussed, so this is definitely a late entry and risky.
 
0941 CST 106 24 is a given. I'll be exiting there as this is fine for this trade.

This downward move should last until 1000 or 1036. I'm getting out between now, or the above two times.
 
We are approaching a low with the hourly count as well. It should hit on completion of this current hourly bar or the next, so that makes me very cautious.

Trade has made its way back to 106 29, so this could become a small tick loss trade. Watching carefully.
 
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