Bond Trader 2007

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Quote from johnpinochet:

02 July 2007

The following are potential turning point times for the bonds.

0800 0900 0930 1115

I missed posting the 0700.

Note that the above is approximate.

Generally speaking today, I will look to buy at the following levels:

107 17/32
107 09/32
107 05/32

The first two are very important levels.

As far as the hourly cycle is concerned, I see us heading lower until 10 or 12 depending on which count one chooses.

The report at 0900 can change the above.
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Recap on profit for today.

I posted these times:

0800 0900 0930 1115

I mentioned also that 0700 was a time, but didn't post it, as it was after the fact.

Here is the breakdown:

0700 2 tick loss.
0800 2 tick loss.
0900 7 tick (equivalent) gain on the ZN's, and 2 tick gain on the additional ZB's.
0930 Was the exit for the 0900 trade
1115 I didn't trade, but you were looking at at least 4 ticks.

All of the above is based on a single ZB contract.

-2 X 1 ZB
-2 X 1 ZB
+7 X 2 (ZB equivalent to 4 ZN)
+2 X 4 ZB
_____
18 tick net profit.

All of the above on minimal work, little to no stress.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

Turning Point Times for today:

0800 0932 1000 1204
More...

Excellent 0800 trade. The dip to 107 29, a very significant number, and price action afterwards told you that the move may stop there. You could have gotten in as late as 108 00, and out for the magic 4 ticks.
 

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In the event the 0900 report does something, here are some numbers to watch:

108 12
108 07

107 30
107 27
107 25

Personally, I think we will have a range bound day, but you never know.

By the way, I see I didn't post it, but technically the 0900 time is also a turning point time. And technically, it would be a turning point time in anyone's book.
 
0917 Bought 2 ZB at 107 29 and a little later 2 ZB at 107 30

Bought 2 ZN 105 270.

Bought 2 ZN 105 280.

I'm not going to post the times for the ZN's. You can figure it out. Profit on 2 ZN's, break even on 2 ZN's.
 
Personally, I think we may go lower to test the target price I mentioned, but when I'm handed almost 500 USD, I try and take it. In this case, the ideal exit was 107 29 for all contracts, then I would have made the full 500, or pretty close.

One of the things I keep bringing up is I like to go for the net number of ticks I know I'm good for. Looking back over years of data, I've always been better off taking 4 - 6 ticks when I'm trading intra-day, 1 min to 60 min time frame.
 
0931 CST We have a 0932 time coming up, but I probably won't do anything as we are right in the middle of a range today.

As of this moment in time, I put the range at 108 01 and 107 26. It is pointless to make a move at this time. There are other times coming up.
 
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