Bond Trader 2007

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02 July 2007

The following are potential turning point times for the bonds.

0800 0900 0930 1115

I missed posting the 0700.

Note that the above is approximate.

Generally speaking today, I will look to buy at the following levels:

107 17/32
107 09/32
107 05/32

The first two are very important levels.

As far as the hourly cycle is concerned, I see us heading lower until 10 or 12 depending on which count one chooses.

The report at 0900 can change the above.
 
0808 CST I have an order in to sell 1 ZB 107 23 and a stop at 107 27. My target is 107 17. We should be able to kiss 107 18 before the 0900 report.
 
0813 Sold 1 ZB 107 23.

Single contract due to variety of reasons, primarily, I don't want to initiate a large trade too close to the report. I'm just looking to scalp this.
 
0852 CST Out at 107 25.

I have a potential short term cycle low here at 0900. This has nothing to do with the hourly cycle mentioned earlier.

How do I interpret this? Assuming a neutral to bullish report, then we are approaching a buy point. Bad report, and I'll disregard this short term cycle low.

Upside target is 108 02 at a minimum.
 
0930 CST Out at 105 275.

I have additional ZB's I bought on the way up, but they are just a couple of tick scalp.

Remember, I always operate under the premise that I'm only going to get 4 - 6 ticks out of a trade. As that is the case, if I add contracts in the middle of a trade, I only look for whatever remaining portion of the 4 - 6 ticks is left based on the earlier entry.
 
What now?

Well, as you have read, I'm only into cycles, turning points and S/R these days. There really is nothing of value at the moment.

I'll be waiting for my times this AM.

If you are still long, here are the targets I would use:

108 04
108 06
108 09
108 10

The fact that we broke above 107 26 followed by 107 31 is very bullish in my book. However, I have been a student of regression to the mean, and spikes have to regress at some point. Look to my earlier post on where to buy.
 
Market wrap with JPEG.

I don't have time to post a lengthy reply. I think the chart speaks for itself. I only traded the 0800 and the 0900 as entries. The 0930 was used to time my exit.

Note that the chart is in EST, i.e. 0900 and 1000 would be entries and 1030 would be the exit. Also note that the chart appears slightly off on the times. It is a 5 min chart. Pull up your own chart to confirm that my line placement is correct. I don't have time to post several 1 min charts.

Excellent day today!
 
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