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Bond Trader 2007
- Thread starter johnpinochet
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Quote from Surdo:
N.A.P.M. release!
Ah! Thanks! With my new schedule I don't discretionary trade that much, so I neglected to look at any report beyond 0730. My cycle times are usually after reports. My bad on not knowing.
OK, let's get back on track with timing. My time for today is 1038 CST.
0914 CST This current down move has a target of 107 04 to 107 07.
Just speculating here, but my ideal trade for 1038 would then be a retracement move back to some resistance high, with some indicator confirmation leading to a short trade. All speculation at this time, just letting you know how I think through a possible scenario.
Just speculating here, but my ideal trade for 1038 would then be a retracement move back to some resistance high, with some indicator confirmation leading to a short trade. All speculation at this time, just letting you know how I think through a possible scenario.
If I were in a short trade at the moment, I would look to take profit now at 107 08 or 107 09.
Update 0922 CST:
Above was posted at 0916 CST. Check the chart for what happened. Nice move to take profit there.
0923 CST
Spoke too soon, we just kissed 107 06.
Update 0922 CST:
Above was posted at 0916 CST. Check the chart for what happened. Nice move to take profit there.
0923 CST
Spoke too soon, we just kissed 107 06.
0930 CST To recap, based on after action analysis, the only discretionary trade for me to take so far this AM was a short anticipation of a break below 107 12. The time to enter this trade was between 0900 and 0908.
I was way early, and didn't have my ducks lined up, to re-enter the short once I realized what was going on.
Going to relax for an hour and get ready for 1038 CST. I will look at the times for the YM contract while I wait.
I was way early, and didn't have my ducks lined up, to re-enter the short once I realized what was going on.
Going to relax for an hour and get ready for 1038 CST. I will look at the times for the YM contract while I wait.
Quote from johnpinochet:
0914 CST This current down move has a target of 107 04 to 107 07.
Just speculating here, but my ideal trade for 1038 would then be a retracement move back to some resistance high, with some indicator confirmation leading to a short trade. All speculation at this time, just letting you know how I think through a possible scenario.
And so it is.
1040 CST Short 8 ZN 105 150. Missed the better entry due to Dow trade. The move actually started a minute or two before the time I gave.
Update 1044 CST As the better entry would have given me an extra tick or two and as I'm general only good for 4 to 6 ticks, I'm going to exit at 105 140 if possible.
Update to above trade. Out at 105 155. Didn't get filled on limit order. Ah, such is life. It was going to be a 4 tick profit trade.
Probably going to call it a day, thankfully the Dow trades make up for the small loss on the bond side.
FYI, if we trade above 107 12 with strength, it will serve as support. If I were to stay up longer, I think I would consider being a buyer.
Interesting call on being a buyer in my last post. Good for 4 - 6 ticks depending on entry.
I've been making a killing trading the Dow today. Simple support and resistance trading. Almost too good to be true. I think I have 6 winners in a row. This is very unusual, including the fact that I'm doing this while I'm about to fall asleep on my keyboard!
I think I really will call it a day now.
Good Trading!
BTW, I'm exiting my Real Estate short today in the 401K due to my belief that we may have a bit of a rally for a few days. Getting out now I believe I'll net 14%, so I'd hate to see that dwindle down to 1% while waiting for the big move.
I've been making a killing trading the Dow today. Simple support and resistance trading. Almost too good to be true. I think I have 6 winners in a row. This is very unusual, including the fact that I'm doing this while I'm about to fall asleep on my keyboard!
I think I really will call it a day now.
Good Trading!
BTW, I'm exiting my Real Estate short today in the 401K due to my belief that we may have a bit of a rally for a few days. Getting out now I believe I'll net 14%, so I'd hate to see that dwindle down to 1% while waiting for the big move.
Quote from johnpinochet:
And so it is.
1040 CST Short 8 ZN 105 150. Missed the better entry due to Dow trade. The move actually started a minute or two before the time I gave.
Update 1044 CST As the better entry would have given me an extra tick or two and as I'm general only good for 4 to 6 ticks, I'm going to exit at 105 140 if possible.
Update to above trade. Out at 105 155. Didn't get filled on limit order. Ah, such is life. It was going to be a 4 tick profit trade.
Probably going to call it a day, thankfully the Dow trades make up for the small loss on the bond side.
FYI, if we trade above 107 12 with strength, it will serve as support. If I were to stay up longer, I think I would consider being a buyer.
If you examine today's chart, the 1038 cycle trade was simply a classic sell a retracement going back to a previous level of support/resistance. The thing to keep in mind about cycle trading is if there is no follow through or confirmation, then you need to consider the cycle "off" or else an inversion has occurred.
My reason for the FYI quoted above is that we now have 2 cycles going on in the hourly ZB chart, a 12 hour cycle and as of yesterday, a 6 hour cycle that repeated twice allowing for an excellent setup on the repeat. The 6 hour cycle low was due around the time that I made the above quoted FYI.
So in conclusion, today was 1 small loss discretionary trade, 1 small loss cycle trade, 1 cycle trade I passed on (the above buy at 107 12 - 107 15), and multiple Dow mini trades resulting in an over all excellent day.
The Dow trades were based on times and support and resistance.
If you are following along and still in paper trade mode, you need to take a really hard look at today's YM and ES market on the 1, 3, and 5 minute bar chart. A day like today, the market hands you money. It is like being at the casino and getting lucky at the slots and the coins just spill out and you are fumbling for the plastic bucket. If you can't trade a day like today in the YM or ES, then you need to regroup, and re-think your strategy. I say this simply to educate. Days like today cover over a multitude of bad days. You must get this right!
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