0756 CST We are in a classic retracement trade. Use your own judgment regarding when to exit. Remember, on these types of trades I'm good for 4 - 6 ticks, so 107 16 is a target.
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Bond Trader 2007
- Thread starter johnpinochet
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Quote from johnpinochet:
0756 CST We are in a classic retracement trade. Use your own judgment regarding when to exit. Remember, on these types of trades I'm good for 4 - 6 ticks, so 107 16 is a target.
OK, nice way to begin the day. I don't feel good about buying this second retracement, so I will simply bide my time. In any event, per earlier comments I may simply call it a day.
Quote from johnpinochet:
OK, nice way to begin the day. I don't feel good about buying this second retracement, so I will simply bide my time. In any event, per earlier comments I may simply call it a day.
0853 CST When we broke 107 12 we went through a special Fib number I had up which I used to buy the first time this AM. I think we may head down to 107 01 to 107 04.
0933 CST I'm exiting at 107 04 if I can get it, else 107 05. This move should last roughly 15 minutes more, so look to get out soon.
OK, two solid trades in a row. Per my guidelines, I'm good for 3 in a row, but once I pass 2, it is time to consider it a day, especially given the important meetings today and tomorrow.
To recap so far only 2 solid, no brainer trades today:
1) Roughly 0744 retracement buy on a 4 min chart.
2) Roughly 0904 to 0916 sell on approach back to important 107 12 number. The cool thing about this trade is that you could have had a 2 tick stop as your risk knowing that 107 04 was a target, i.e. 6 tick profit vs 2 tick loss.
To recap so far only 2 solid, no brainer trades today:
1) Roughly 0744 retracement buy on a 4 min chart.
2) Roughly 0904 to 0916 sell on approach back to important 107 12 number. The cool thing about this trade is that you could have had a 2 tick stop as your risk knowing that 107 04 was a target, i.e. 6 tick profit vs 2 tick loss.
Quote from johnpinochet:
0933 CST I'm exiting at 107 04 if I can get it, else 107 05. This move should last roughly 15 minutes more, so look to get out soon.
One of the reasons I got out was because I knew a cycle low was going to hit at roughly 0948. The actual low was 0936 on the 4 min chart, and confirmation was at 0944. I have two cycle indicators, one slightly out of phase with the other. One had already bottomed but was early, the other was going to bottom at 0948. It is really cool to see these cycles from the day before and be able to plan ahead.
In the bonds here are the times for today:
1130 to 1200
1505 to 1530
You can look at it as two 30 min windows, or as 4 separate times.
You decide what to do at each time. They are possible turning point times or reaction times.
Note that the above require discretion and I changed the minutes slightly for a 5 min chart (the most commonly used).
1130 to 1200
1505 to 1530
You can look at it as two 30 min windows, or as 4 separate times.
You decide what to do at each time. They are possible turning point times or reaction times.
Note that the above require discretion and I changed the minutes slightly for a 5 min chart (the most commonly used).
Quote from johnpinochet:
055 CST Pre-market commentary
***SNIP***
My reason for posting today is just to state for the record, I put 75% of my 401K in the UltraShort Dow 30 ProFund and 25% into the Short Real Estate ProFund.
I did this 2 days ago. Yeah I know, primarily luck but also an intuitive gut feel that something is seriously wrong. Yes, we could have another bounce just like we've had for every other dip since October 2006. I'm willing to take the chance.
***SNIP***
401K update
Out of the UltraShort Dow 30 ProFund at EOD today for roughly 1% gain. I'm going to shift allocation adding more to the Short Real Estate fund, and probably pick up an Oil / Energy ETF. I may look into shorting gold as well.
My reason for exiting today is that the more I think about it, the more it looks like we will have one final swing for the fences rally left in the US stock market. The recent lows look like they have staying power.
In any event, per previous comments, the Dow Short was just a short term trade, the Real Estate short is probably a 3 - 6 - 9 month trade, maybe longer.
Also, the FOMC release tomorrow has the power to skew everything.
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