Took 111 20 on ZB and 108 030 on ZN. Follow through is terrible. Waiting for 0900.
Bond Trader 2007
- Thread starter johnpinochet
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If you are short the ZN, 107 270 is a nice target, but I would take some off now at 108 285 to be safe.
Quote from Surdo:
Nice NFP release, NOT!>>>>>88K
They took Bonds down 28 ticks on the number.
Now they are up a buck off the lows where they should be.
I bought some nice cheap ones.
Oooooooooooops.
Good move Surdo.
Cycle times have worked very well this week, in particular today. Knowing that there was a buy bias between 0750 and 0810 would have saved you from shorting at the 111 19 to 111 21 area, which under normal circumstances would have been a standard sell entry.
Finally knowing that there was a sell bias around 0900 would have come in handy as well.
By the way, there is a buy bias from 1100 till the close. Remember, I don't blindly trade off of the bias, but use it as a tool.
Since I trade mostly ZN options, I visit your page often.
On Thursday, I got hit first on my bid for ZN 109 June call @ 6/64.Seeing bonds still tanking, I bid ZN 109call @4/64 & bought more. Later towards the close I sold them for 5/64.
on Friday before the Employment nos, (with my old long ZN 109 call quoting @4/64)
I placed 2 orders.
ZN 108 call (last trade was 25/64) @15/64 &
ZN 109 call @ 3/64.
At 8.30.001AM , I could not believe my eyes both my buy orders were executed!!!!!!!!!
with in micro second I sold ZN 108 call @ 25/64!! I could have waited & sold over 30/64!! But I did not wait & count my luck.
I was even thinking IB will cancel the trade!!!
Later sold all my ZN 109 calls @ 6/64.
Little guy once in a while gets lucky when the elephants move!!
On Thursday, I got hit first on my bid for ZN 109 June call @ 6/64.Seeing bonds still tanking, I bid ZN 109call @4/64 & bought more. Later towards the close I sold them for 5/64.
on Friday before the Employment nos, (with my old long ZN 109 call quoting @4/64)
I placed 2 orders.
ZN 108 call (last trade was 25/64) @15/64 &
ZN 109 call @ 3/64.
At 8.30.001AM , I could not believe my eyes both my buy orders were executed!!!!!!!!!
with in micro second I sold ZN 108 call @ 25/64!! I could have waited & sold over 30/64!! But I did not wait & count my luck.
I was even thinking IB will cancel the trade!!!
Later sold all my ZN 109 calls @ 6/64.
Little guy once in a while gets lucky when the elephants move!!
I'll be taking a break from the journal for awhile. I've been focusing on just two trades a day in the bond market. I've found this method to be rewarding, even during a slow period. It is all I've done this week.
The rules are simple and have been detailed previously. It takes me about 5 minutes or less to come up with the time. The rest is just waiting patiently for the time and the set-up to come together.
I believe I've mentioned this before, but it is worth stating again, one thing I've learned in analyzing all of my trades is that with day trading the ZB, I've always been better off taking 4 - 6 ticks when offered, rather than waiting and hoping for higher prices.
Good trading!
The rules are simple and have been detailed previously. It takes me about 5 minutes or less to come up with the time. The rest is just waiting patiently for the time and the set-up to come together.
I believe I've mentioned this before, but it is worth stating again, one thing I've learned in analyzing all of my trades is that with day trading the ZB, I've always been better off taking 4 - 6 ticks when offered, rather than waiting and hoping for higher prices.
Good trading!
Per PM request, the rules for this twice a day style of trading.
1) Determine the ideal buy time and the ideal sell time via whatever method you see fit. I use my own neural network studies. You could probably do the same thing with an Excel spreadsheet. There are a number of books on Amazon.com that detail how to do rather elaborate statistical analysis with Excel. You could even eye ball the chart. The two times stand out like a sore thumb this week, as they have every week since April when I started documenting this. Note the times are not the same. They vary. I re-optimize every morning.
Note that due to my programming experience, I'm able to go into rather elaborate detail on the ideal time, i.e. how many bars are ideal, how many ticks to wait for, etc.
2) Decide on whatever trading strategy you see fit. It could be MACD. It could be RSI. It could be retracements like I use.
3) Look at S/R.
4) Consider the report results.
5) Consider the overall trend on the daily or hourly or 30 min.
6) When the ideal time arrives, if your above criteria confirms, take the trade. If not, wait for the second trade of the day. It is possible not to have a trade.
That is it.
I realize the above is rather generic. There really is nothing more to add other than it works for me.
Finally, if you still don't get it, just ask yourself how much money you could have made today knowing that the ideal time to sell today was 0900 CST? You would have known this as of the market close yesterday.
1) Determine the ideal buy time and the ideal sell time via whatever method you see fit. I use my own neural network studies. You could probably do the same thing with an Excel spreadsheet. There are a number of books on Amazon.com that detail how to do rather elaborate statistical analysis with Excel. You could even eye ball the chart. The two times stand out like a sore thumb this week, as they have every week since April when I started documenting this. Note the times are not the same. They vary. I re-optimize every morning.
Note that due to my programming experience, I'm able to go into rather elaborate detail on the ideal time, i.e. how many bars are ideal, how many ticks to wait for, etc.
2) Decide on whatever trading strategy you see fit. It could be MACD. It could be RSI. It could be retracements like I use.
3) Look at S/R.
4) Consider the report results.
5) Consider the overall trend on the daily or hourly or 30 min.
6) When the ideal time arrives, if your above criteria confirms, take the trade. If not, wait for the second trade of the day. It is possible not to have a trade.
That is it.
I realize the above is rather generic. There really is nothing more to add other than it works for me.
Finally, if you still don't get it, just ask yourself how much money you could have made today knowing that the ideal time to sell today was 0900 CST? You would have known this as of the market close yesterday.
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