Bond Trader 2007

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Quote from dhpar:

I will disappoint you - it is something I simply remember from university years which is very long time ago. Pick any book on microeconomics and look for Paasche/Laspeyres indices and impact on budget constraint for an agent. :)
In general price indices (CPI/PPI) are based on "optimal" baskets and are (infrequently) adjusted. GDP deflator is based on actually produced basket of goods, i.e. it is not as subjective as CPI/PPI. I tried Wiki and here is what it says: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GDP_deflator (look at Calculation section)
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Thanks for the explanation. I did not disappoint! :)
-B.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:


5) Cycles do work, but there is discretion involved. For example, are you going to take a cycle sell on a day when the market just popped up 48 ticks, and is now in the process of retracing 8 of those ticks? Of course not. Make a note of the time and buy after the cycle hits or disregard it altogether on such a day.
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Pop quiz. There was a cycle buy yesterday a little after 8, and a cycle sell yesterday a little after 9. I knew these numbers last week.

Which trade do you think I took given the 0730 Personal Income and Outlays reported numbers? Better yet, if you can answer this next one you get an A+. What do you think I was doing a little after 9? Waiting to buy or to sell?

If you can answer that, then you know everything you need to know about cycles, if you can't, then cycles don't work and never will work...for you.

Note that the above times change. Don't assume you can trade the above times after today.
 
Buy, buy, buy.

I bought some earlier this AM at 111 28. I think a run to 112 10 or higher is possible. I also think a bit of a retracement is possible.

If you can get 111 24 take it, but I don't think we'll see that before we break 112 00.
 
I believe 108 170 to be a given today in the 10 year.

Beware of stop runs in the ZB or ZN. Today is probably not the kind of day to go to the bathroom or take a 30 min break to exercise.

In conclusion, be prepared to take you profit quickly on a spike up to 112 10 to 112 12. I'm not sure that it will last the first time around. You might have a few hours of consolidation to deal with. Remember, time is money!
 
0840 CST We've kissed 112 00 a few times now. I feel pretty good about this trade and I'm not going to settle for my usual 4 ticks. I'm looking for 112 10 to 112 12 HOWEVER, I'll take 112 04 if necessary. 8 ticks per contract is a nice way to begin the first trade of the month.
 
0846 CST I was hoping for the spike to get out prior to 0900. One of the two reports will probably affect us in some way, i.e. the ISM. My belief is the market has tipped its hand and the reaction will be to the upside, BUT reports are dangerous. Even so, a bearish number might be a good time to buy.
 
0906 The only thing that saved me on this was moving my stop up to break even since we had broken 112 00 and kissed 112 01 prior to the report. It is stupid to maintain a stop at a loss when the market has traveled in the direction you wanted and even presented you with your usual and customary target, i.e. 4 ticks.

Standing aside for now. I'm looking to sell on a first retracement to 111 25.
 
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