Bond Trader 2007

[johnpinochet]

1013 CST I haven't bought yet. I'm thinking about calling it a day as I've already made my profit target for today.

If I were to buy, I would only buy small size, 2 lots at the most, and I would have a very tight 4 tick stop.

 

[johnpinochet]

1028 CST I don't feel right about buying here. I would have to manage the trade for at least 30 more min maybe even a few hours. It isn't worth my time.

Done for the day. Good trading!

 

[Surdo]

Treasury TIPS auction attracts solid demand

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - A Treasury Department auction of $8 billion in new Treasury Inflation Protected Securities attracted solid demand, including a solid 2.45 bid-to-cover - or bids accepted to bids received - ratio. The indirect bid, which is an indicator of the interest level of foreign central banks, was 44.6%, which is above average. The auction produced a high yield of 2.114% and a median yield of 2.085%.


NON event!

el surdo

 

[johnpinochet]

Commentary Tuesday 24 April 2007

There really were only two to four trades today depending on your risk level.

The first is a short at 111 20 around 0630 or so, and an exit at 111 16. With the two 0900 reports due, the market couldn't go up too much.

The second trade was the one moments after the initial spike up, trying to enter around 111 17. As you know, I had to chase a little and finally got filled at 111 24. The third one occurred between 0910 to 0930 buying around 111 25 to 111 26 and exiting at 111 28. On this second one you probably would have only been filled at 111 26.

Finally, between 0950 and 1030 you had an opportunity to go short since a test of 111 29 failed three times on the 10 minute chart.

With all of that said, I only took the spike trade on the first run up. I didn't get out for the first kiss of 111 29, but I made sure I exited for the second re-test. My reason for this can be found in my posted thoughts yesterday, right at the turning point of the day.

 

[johnpinochet]

0709 CST Pre-market open commentary for 25 April 2007

No bias, but I am slightly bullish, meaning I don't think we will go below 111 01.

My numbers remain the same. Important numbers are:

112 00
111 19
111 13
111 06
111 01

The above are based simply on important trade levels over the last week or so. Barring really negative news, my guess is that we head higher than where we are now, 111 19 One thing I've learned this month of April is not to count on a break out that has legs and continues in a stair step fashion up or down.

I won't know what to do until 0730.

 

[johnpinochet]

0734 CST Trying to sell 111 16 on the ZB for scalp trade. Tight stop.

0735 CST Filled.

Stop set at 111 20.

Target is break of lows to 111 08.

 

[johnpinochet]

The fact that the market held 111 11 is bullish in my opinion. I only view this as a one time trade and will re-evaluate after closing this trade. The only draw back with my stop is that 111 20 is another excellent short level. For now, I'd rather get stopped out and think again.

 

[johnpinochet]

0741 Need to watch carefully now. This trade has a 1 or 2 tick profit feel to it. No follow through to downside and may need to consider that buying is in order.

 

[BondTrader50]

Also keep in mind that there was a pre number sell off. Which obviously meant that someone knew the number

 

[dhpar]

Quote from johnpinochet:

The fact that the market held 111 11 is bullish in my opinion.

i don't think so. the fact that it held up is due to new sales coming up in an hour. one good number can cripple this market - it is at crazy levels especially given inflation (yesterday's consumer confidence showed expectations has risen to 5.2%! - wtf).

still we have to wait for gdp and pce on friday - this may be a big day.