Bond Trader 2007

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0809 CST I had an order in while typing the above. I'm short 2 ZB 111 07. This will be with a target of 111 03.

Selling at 111 13 was the no-brainer trade of the month. If you don't understand why, take a moment to think through everything you know about today, Monday 23 April 2007.
 
0818 CST Sold two more at 111 07. I'm fairly confident of a kiss of 111 03. We may see 111 11 again in a few minutes but I doubt it. I think the market needs to go lower one last time, maybe to the 110 numbers published last week before heading higher.
 
0839 CST The safe play is a target of 111 01 as an exit.

I'm giving very serious thought to holding out for a 110 number, perhaps 110 31 or 110 27.

0841 CST Unless you are a remarkable scalper, don't think about buying yet. As I type this we are kissing 111 02. I personally have no intention of buying until we touch the 110 numbers mentioned above. Heck, at this point, Surdo's posted number on Friday may come into play.
 
0845 CST If we can't kiss 111 01, it might be time to take the money and run.

0846 CST We kissed 111 01. I'm staying in.

0851 CST Taking half off here at 111 01 if possible.

0854 CST Out of all at 111 02. I thought it better to get out, re-evaluate and go back in.

0857 CST I'm looking to sell the ZB between 111 03 and 111 07, and the ZN between 107 290 and 107 305.
 
Quote from Surdo:

Watch the EURUSD and GBPUSD, the main catalyst for Bonds today JP!

el surdo
More...

I do not agree with that at all. Bonds are on the different wavelength as I suggested on Thursday - so far everything spot on.
 
We have confirmation on the next trade being a sell, as we are retracing now, and we are coming up on a 0915 cycle sell good for a minimum of 2 ticks net.

I'm going to scale in and start selling these numbers:

111 04
111 06
111 07

0908 CST Added a sell at 111 03 to get started.
 
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