Bond Trader 2007

Status
Not open for further replies.
For anyone joining us late, I've been having rather remarkable success this month of April. These kinds of things are cyclical in nature, however, I think there are some fundamental changes I have undergone with my mindset, my setups, my perceptions etc.

Let me put it to you this way, I had an epiphany this month. I've always been somewhat discouraged that despite my modestly successful efforts, I really couldn't justify leaving my cushy job. There has always been and probably always will be a certain amount of uncertainty in trading. If your income plus benefits are at a certain level, it would take a lot to quit to trade full-time.

This month, for the first time since I started trading bonds in 1994, I see light at the end of the tunnel in terms of actually seeing for the first time that not only can I do this full-time, but it is in fact the next logical step.

What changed? Well, I already mentioned October of last year. That alone might cause some people to quit their job and do something else. Part of it has to do with my different take on the market. I now focus on volume, price, S/R, time and value. I may glance at the indicators but I really don't pay attention. I don't even pay attention to my nets anymore other than for the cycles.

Part of it has to do with studying Spydertrader's stock method and applying those principles to the bond market. Primarily the cycles part and the trendlines. Also a big part was the idea of value according to where the stock is in its cycle. I haven't even looked at any of the futures stuff he is teaching. For the time being that would be too complex.

Another part has to do with realizing that I've considered this a hobby all these years and it isn't. The level of study, time, commitment and money invested makes this a business. If you want to succeed in business, you must treat your business as a business.

I know I have a few more points to make but I wanted to share the good news. I'm giving myself through the end of September of this year. If I can continue to trade as consistently, methodically, and stress free as I have for the month of April, I will set a target date for going full-time.
 
good luck!
it is a difficult decision to make, i.e. to forego a safe well payed career job for something as volatile as trading revenues.
I did that myself - after many years on Wall Street in a prime house with above average comp (for a prime house) - so I don't talk the talk ;)

Some factors may help you to do this decision, e.g. supporting family, some real estate properties, love for trading (i.e. hobby!), self belief, "take it easy - it's only money" attitude are the most important imho. When you do a balance sheet of pros and cons :D do not forget to involve soft facts like "holiday whenever you want", "being with your family/friends", "no bullshit" etc. They are invaluable! - but you know that :)
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

For anyone joining us late, I've been having rather remarkable success this month of April. These kinds of things are cyclical in nature, however, I think there are some fundamental changes I have undergone with my mindset, my setups, my perceptions etc.

Let me put it to you this way, I had an epiphany this month. I've always been somewhat discouraged that despite my modestly successful efforts, I really couldn't justify leaving my cushy job. There has always been and probably always will be a certain amount of uncertainty in trading. If your income plus benefits are at a certain level, it would take a lot to quit to trade full-time.

This month, for the first time since I started trading bonds in 1994, I see light at the end of the tunnel in terms of actually seeing for the first time that not only can I do this full-time, but it is in fact the next logical step.

What changed? Well, I already mentioned October of last year. That alone might cause some people to quit their job and do something else. Part of it has to do with my different take on the market. I now focus on volume, price, S/R, time and value. I may glance at the indicators but I really don't pay attention. I don't even pay attention to my nets anymore other than for the cycles.

Part of it has to do with studying Spydertrader's stock method and applying those principles to the bond market. Primarily the cycles part and the trendlines. Also a big part was the idea of value according to where the stock is in its cycle. I haven't even looked at any of the futures stuff he is teaching. For the time being that would be too complex.

Another part has to do with realizing that I've considered this a hobby all these years and it isn't. The level of study, time, commitment and money invested makes this a business. If you want to succeed in business, you must treat your business as a business.

I know I have a few more points to make but I wanted to share the good news. I'm giving myself through the end of September of this year. If I can continue to trade as consistently, methodically, and stress free as I have for the month of April, I will set a target date for going full-time.
More...

Kick ass news JP. Good luck !!
 
$31.25

1 tic = 1/32nd of a point


($1000 per full point)


$100,000 notional

or did you mean, dollar value of 1 basis point?
 
Quote from cashmoney69:

What is the dollar value per tick of the bonds your trading?.
More...

31.25 on the 30 year. It is my benchmark. I simply use the 10 year when I can't get a fill on the 30 year.

So, when I say I made 2 ticks, then it is 31.25 X 2 X number of contracts.

I'm curious to know why you ask? If you are going to data mine me, I'd be interested in the results of your study. Seriously. I haven't had the time to go back and tabulate every trade I've made here.

I know my own results of course. What I mean is that I've not posted consistently here so, it would be a lot of work for me to co-relate what I post here with my account statements.

In addition, I would love to find out if anyone has parsed what I've written and actually improved upon it. There are many examples of me giving up a lot of money by not taking my profit target.

One of the points I wanted to make in my post about my epiphany is that it doesn't take large size to achieve outsize results. I think for the most part I've traded 1 - 2 lots this month with the occasion 4 lot trade thrown in. What this has done as well is made me realize that I haven't even tapped my full potential with 1 - 2 lot trades. I can honestly see myself not needing to progress beyond 4 - 6 lots for a long time. On the high side I see 10 lots. Obviously I do have goals to increase my size, but the key point is it isn't necessary. I need to squeeze out every dollar I can from what I do now.
 
Quote from cashmoney69:

..and how many points can these bonds move in a day? :D
More...

1 full point days are fairly rare, especially recently. I remember getting them more frequently when I first started. I'm speaking of the trade between 0720 and roughly 1200. Of course the full day's range to include after hours trading might be a full point but the average Joe trading normal CST hours will never see that. We've had days on end of only 10 - 20 tick range in the 30 year recently for the morning hours.

Some of the above is slightly exaggerated, but you get my point. Don't expect to have a full 32 tick range every day in the 30 year from 0720 to 1200. It won't happen. Once a week at the most.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top