Bond Trader 2007

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I'll probably pass on any shorts or trading in general with the bonds today due to the Dow. I actually thought about shorting the Dow at 12630 but decided against it. Quite a shame as I see we are now at 12557.

My best guess for today is a narrow range in the Bonds.

Good trading!
 
0722 CST Pre-report observation

Today, Thursday, and tomorrow, Friday 13 April 2007 are the two days this week we've been waiting for.

Two 0730 reports to trade today. Hopefully we can break out of this narrow range.

This is a standard report day for me. I'll be looking to buy or sell depending on the report.

Common sense numbers to look for:

110 21
110 11

A little further study reveals:

111 14
110 06

Spike number on down side is 109 28 to 109 31.

Spike number to upside is 111 18 to 111 22.
 
0738 Long 2 ZN 107 205. Looking for a breakout above high. No breakout = quick exit.

Reasons:

1 min MACD and neural network based on MACD.

2 minute Ehler's cycle stuff and neural network.

No 0735 trade.

My goal this morning is to show a minimum of a 500 USD profit trading small size. I may go large at some point, but I'd like to do it on small size.

I'm not giving a lot of weight to a large move in the bonds so a short may appear at some time today.

0747 CST Update
Looking to add 2 ZN's to bring myself up to my minimum customary size these last couple of weeks.

0748 CST Filled on 2 more ZN's at 107 205.

107 180 to 107 185 is an initial worst case stop.
 
0754 Sold 4 ZN's 107 195. I hate when price comes back to my entry. Really hate that. I'm still leaning towards a buy re-entry. To late to short at this point.

Also, keep in mind that this was buying on anticipation of a few tick spike through the high. We got to 107 215 which is close enough to meeting the criteria. Once there was no follow through, this type of trade has to close out quickly.
 
0808 CST Sold 2 ZB 110 21. Wanted 110 22 or better but not going to get it.

Will exit quickly if necessary. Target is 110 16 to 110 18.

Target in the 10 year is 107 180. Hopefully lower.
 
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