L
Lance Carson
Filled, - Long 111-09
Bond Trader 2007
- Thread starter johnpinochet
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Quote from Bernard111:
I'm a bit a newbie about steepeners and flatteners; can you please explain the details of your '245x'10?
Bernard
in this case it was sell FVM7 @ 105'245 and buy USM7 @ 111 10/32. You need to know the ratios of current CTDs which is currently 13/5 (Bloomberg gives it to you under "FH" function).
good luck
.OK, here we go. I'm long small size at 111 10. Order placed at 0805 CST.
I'm looking for a first attempt to 111 13 followed by an ideal target of 111 16 to 111 18.
Reasons for the trade:
1 min MACD
Linear Regression of various items
Stop initially placed at 111 04, but that won't be there long. Just a fail-safe.
Trade is taking too long.
I'm looking for a first attempt to 111 13 followed by an ideal target of 111 16 to 111 18.
Reasons for the trade:
1 min MACD
Linear Regression of various items
Stop initially placed at 111 04, but that won't be there long. Just a fail-safe.
Trade is taking too long.
Food for thought for systems developers looking to automate.
My neural net gave a sell at 111 11 and a buy at 111 09. If you were to go with back testing you would have given yourself the fill.
I don't allow the application to auto-trade so I have to manually execute the trade. Had I taken the first sell, I would have gotten filled at 111 10. I would then have turned around and taken the buy and gotten filled at 111 10. The trade would have been a wash, minus commission in real life.
If you are back testing though, you may have given yourself the possible 2 tick profit, as the application would record the fill at the better price. Granted, you could account for slippage easily, but I wanted to present this as an example of how paper trading / back testing isn't always in your best interest, unless you are brutally honest.
I've mentioned it before, and for anyone new, I use a combination of software products. For basic charting, Ensign. For more advanced charting, Amibroker. My neural network stuff is a combination of open source (WEKA) and a few off the shelf items I picked up here and there over the years. I highly recommend getting a PC, installing linux (Ubuntu or Gentoo) and installing WEKA. You'll learn more than you ever wanted to learn about data, relationships, modeling, etc, etc, etc.
My neural net gave a sell at 111 11 and a buy at 111 09. If you were to go with back testing you would have given yourself the fill.
I don't allow the application to auto-trade so I have to manually execute the trade. Had I taken the first sell, I would have gotten filled at 111 10. I would then have turned around and taken the buy and gotten filled at 111 10. The trade would have been a wash, minus commission in real life.
If you are back testing though, you may have given yourself the possible 2 tick profit, as the application would record the fill at the better price. Granted, you could account for slippage easily, but I wanted to present this as an example of how paper trading / back testing isn't always in your best interest, unless you are brutally honest.
I've mentioned it before, and for anyone new, I use a combination of software products. For basic charting, Ensign. For more advanced charting, Amibroker. My neural network stuff is a combination of open source (WEKA) and a few off the shelf items I picked up here and there over the years. I highly recommend getting a PC, installing linux (Ubuntu or Gentoo) and installing WEKA. You'll learn more than you ever wanted to learn about data, relationships, modeling, etc, etc, etc.
Out at 111 09 and reversed, i.e. now short at 111 09.
Looks like chop, but I'm trying a new thing, and I'm going to stick with what I see on the NN. It isn't a signal, but a pattern on the chart. Small size again.
For this week, small = maybe 1 lot, normal = 2 lot, and large is a minimum of 4 lots on up to 10 or 12. The above varies week to week depending on what the market is doing. As we all have agreed, the market has been faking us out a lot, hence I've scaled back and I try to avoid taking 4 lot trades initially.
Stop set at 111 12. This is a little too tight as it can be hit easily, but I'm not married to this trade. I have no bias. I would love to buy at 111 01 or better and go short at 111 18 or better.
Looks like chop, but I'm trying a new thing, and I'm going to stick with what I see on the NN. It isn't a signal, but a pattern on the chart. Small size again.
For this week, small = maybe 1 lot, normal = 2 lot, and large is a minimum of 4 lots on up to 10 or 12. The above varies week to week depending on what the market is doing. As we all have agreed, the market has been faking us out a lot, hence I've scaled back and I try to avoid taking 4 lot trades initially.
Stop set at 111 12. This is a little too tight as it can be hit easily, but I'm not married to this trade. I have no bias. I would love to buy at 111 01 or better and go short at 111 18 or better.
0857 CST Out at 111 12.
0859 Bought 2 ZB 111 11.
What I see:
Above the 30 min pivot.
1 min MACD positive since before 0800 other than 10 minutes kissing the center line.
cycle indicator approached the center line and went back up.
I wanted to do a quick study and see if the ideal sell time has changed. If I have a chance I'll post it.
What I see:
Above the 30 min pivot.
1 min MACD positive since before 0800 other than 10 minutes kissing the center line.
cycle indicator approached the center line and went back up.
I wanted to do a quick study and see if the ideal sell time has changed. If I have a chance I'll post it.
0919 Reversed. Now short 2 ZB 111 10. I give up.
Sorry, I normally have solid trade within 2 hours.
I don't like the fact that we've had 3 30 min bar attempts at 111 12 with no follow through or conviction.
I'm leaning towards calling it a day as it appears that with tomorrow being a short day at the CBOT, there won't be much activity today or tomorrow. In addition, there is a danger of stops being run in either direction which would trash any entry setups.
Sorry, I normally have solid trade within 2 hours.
I don't like the fact that we've had 3 30 min bar attempts at 111 12 with no follow through or conviction.
I'm leaning towards calling it a day as it appears that with tomorrow being a short day at the CBOT, there won't be much activity today or tomorrow. In addition, there is a danger of stops being run in either direction which would trash any entry setups.
0941 CST Target is 111 06. Yeah, I know, good luck with that.
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