Bond Trader 2007

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Exited during the test of 110 29 for a 2 tick loss.

Between one of my toddlers waking up and IB feed's going down constantly I'm afraid I won't be able to devote the attention to this that it deserves. I'm probably done for my evening (Chicago AM).

I'm finding more and more that IB's data feed which I use with Ensign is very unreliable. Their recent implementation of the data throttling for backfills is terrible for me. I never really noticed until I started looking at 300 + stocks with Amibroker + IB's data feed. It takes a long time to get back fill.

At the moment I'm subscribing to three real time feeds in order to select the best one. Let's see what happens.
 
What a shame. There goes my 5 to 6 ticks that I've made it a point to shoot for in my journal.

If you are in the trade, 110 14 is an important number.

0826 CST UPDATE

I would say that a test of 110 19 is a given. If you wanted a quick scalp of a few ticks you might be able to get in somewhere around here. Look at the chart for yourself. Dangerous trade and not the easy money trade which was between 111 01 and 110 27.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

What a shame. There goes my 5 to 6 ticks that I've made it a point to shoot for in my journal.

If you are in the trade, 110 14 is an important number.
More...

Hate it when that happens - still have zn from 050 - looking for a better correction to the last few days. Also holding a zf based on the same stuff.

Enjoying your thoughts.

Chris
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

What a shame. There goes my 5 to 6 ticks that I've made it a point to shoot for in my journal.

If you are in the trade, 110 14 is an important number.

0826 CST UPDATE

I would say that a test of 110 19 is a given. If you wanted a quick scalp of a few ticks you might be able to get in somewhere around here. Look at the chart for yourself. Dangerous trade and not the easy money trade which was between 111 01 and 110 27.
More...

That is a wrap for today. Easy money trade was short between 111 01 and 110 27. The next sort of easy money trade was 0857 through 0918 on the 3 minute, shorting between 110 25 and 110 22.

Earlier I said 110 14 was a very important number. That was your target.

Per my journal, you know I'm good for a 4 - 6 tick trade, and you also know that I'm good for at most 3 trades in a row.

Even though today didn't work out for me, if you've been following my journal you have two in a row there. Call it a day and relax.
 
Im looking to bid ZN 106'28 to 106'25 range for a 3-4 points move.

This idea will expire in 3 hours if i don't get filled

Any toughts?
 
Quote from chauncey1:

Im looking to bid ZN 106'28 to 106'25 range for a 3-4 points move.

This idea will expire in 3 hours if i don't get filled

Any toughts?
More...

I'm not going to comment specifically on your trade, i.e. yes do it, or no don't do it, HOWEVER I will give you my thoughts.

Generally, on a day like today, looking at the 30 min chart and pivots, I would sell the ZB on its next attempt of 110 24 to 110 26 before the close. That covers a selling strategy.

As far as buying, I hate picking lows against the trend. My gut feel is that we could go higher from here (110 18 at the moment), but honestly I would just wait for a sell.

Note that these are my thoughts as of 1021 CST. I'm always on the lookout for "V" days, and any strength at 110 24 to 110 26 along with a failure to decline soon after reaching those levels would lead me to consider reversing and going long.

Take my advice, bank your profit and call it a day. The easy money for today is gone.
 
Quote from DblArrow:

Hate it when that happens - still have zn from 050 - looking for a better correction to the last few days. Also holding a zf based on the same stuff.

Enjoying your thoughts.

Chris
More...

Thanks Chris, I hope everything worked out for you.

One thing I noticed when I read back through my journal is that toddler interference / computer problems etc are an almost sure thing that price will continue in whatever direction I indicated I was thinking about but couldn't stay around to follow.

I wonder how many have figured that out yet? Closest thing to a sure "thing" I can think of.
 
0800 CST Monday 12 February 2007

Today will be a "wait for the easy money" type of day. I'm looking almost exclusively at the 30 minute chart today with an occasional peak at the 5 minute.

My primary indicators for today are cycle related, a linear regression of a cycle, and volume related. The volume is on the 30 min and the other stuff is on the 5 min.

I see bonds moving up a bit and I've done the following:

Bought 2 ZB's at 110 12.

My targets are:

110 15 to 110 18

This will probably be a quick trade and then I'll shift my focus to stocks. I'm on the verge of going live with an automated system this AM and I need to monitor it carefully as this will be the first time doing this. The system is for stocks only.

Ideal entry was somewhere around the 0700 bounce off of 110 07. So make that about a 110 10 realistic entry. My cycle bottom didn't fire until 0715.
 
0811 I'm writing this as the trade is ongoing. Why take the trade? Aside from the previously stated, another confirmation is that 0800 was the third attempt at a zero line cross on my cycle indicator. You can see almost the same thing if you pull up a 3 or 5 min chart of the ZB's with a standard 12, 26, 9 setting.

Generally speaking a third attempt at anything usually results in follow through. If not, then a reversal is in order.
 
0910 CST Order in to exit ZB's at 110 18. Man I love looking at the 30 min. Much more peace of mind. Of course it helps that today is sort of a gentle drifting day as well.

I'm short 200 shares of HST (stock). Got in at 27.74. I usually trade 1000 shares but since this is the autotrader I'm being very cautious. To be honest, I just looked at the signal and manually entered the trade. The next step is confirming the signal and letting it enter the trade and the final stage is full automation.
 
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