Bond Trader 2007

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0935 I just exited a quick scalp in the dow. The ES is down 3 more points since prior post. Hopefully a down bias in the Dow will give a push to the bonds to re-test highs.

0939 I think our range will be from 107 06 to 107 14 through the end of today. I will look to exit on any approach of the highs, leaving maybe 1 on. My target will be 107 12 at a minimum.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

Tuesday 10 July 2007

0743 CST Important turning point times for today:

0748 0800 0848 0928 1016 1100 1204

Important support at 106 26.

I will be a buyer on all dips. Target is above 107 00.

The important times appear to start with 0848. The really important times occurred earlier, i.e. blindly buy at 0600 or 0700 and I missed them.
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Here are the first four times in the 1 min chart. Chart is EST.
 

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401K update.

Since my last post about getting out of the Dow and US Real Estate short funds, I entered TBSI for a quick 8% last week, and now I am in SRS as of yesterday. My entry on SRS was 86.22.

I still think the sub-prime fiasco has yet to completely unfold. I would like to stay in SRS for weeks if not months. Looking at the daily chart, it appears to be doing a classic retracement, very similar to the behaviour of the ZB. I'm going to hold for a minimum retest of the high, 95.23 on 26 June 2007.

At some point this year, I'm looking to invest 100% in the shipping container companies, i.e. SFIL, FRO, TBSI etc. Their performance this year is phenomenal.
 
1059 CST I think I will wrap it up today. I'm not getting a feel for the short term direction, and we are entering the "narrow range do nothing" time zone soon. Plus I don't like our repeated tests of the lows.

BondTrader50, Surdo,

Good to hear from you.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

0928 Bought 4 ZB 107 09 for one last run at the highs. I might hold 1 or 2 over night as I believe this up move still has steam.

0931 Looking for 100 point down day on the Dow.
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Not a bad call for the second half of the day. Obviously per my post I got out, but still, not a bad call.

Perhaps today is the day that finally does in the Dow bull for a while. Not looking for a long time, just a bit, as I do believe the best is yet to come per EWT according to Tony Caldaro (sp?).

SRS up 4.48. I'd like to see 95, but my usual custom is to get out anytime we approach 10% gain in less than a few days. I'll read up on the Fed speech and see what happened.
 
0439 CST

Pre-market 11 July 2007

I'm no longer confident on my long bias as the market has gone all the way past 108 05. I think it safe to say that some sort of pullback is necessary. I wish I could have shorted at 108 05 a couple of hours ago, but I wasn't watching at the time.

Today, I am neutral on direction, but if I had to pick a direction, I would say, I would be looking to short at an ideal price, maybe 108 05 if possible.

Upper levels:

108 19
108 08
108 05

Lower levels:
107 19
107 12
106 24
106 20

I think a test of 107 16 to 107 20 is definitely possible.

I'm looking for something big to happen sometime this month. A couple of points on the ZB, and a few hundred points on the Dow (YM).

Times are:

0644 0728 0904 to 0932 1008 1056 1204

There is a window between 0904 and 0932. It is too difficult to try to break this window down, so I would simply note it and keep an eye on this window. If you would like to know the detail, 0904 0924 and 0932 appear to be the correct numbers.
 
0723 CST OK, per my post, I was looking to short at 108 05, but put in an order to short at 108 02 as I needed to step away for a couple of hours. I didn't want to miss a move by a tick or two.

Took half off here at 107 24.

Holding the rest for a strong move down. I may add more anywhere between 107 26 and 107 29.

0725 CST Just a gut feel but I think we will break 107 23. Things look weak. I just wish I had put on more lots at 108 02.
 
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