Looking to go short again anywhere between 112 15 and 112 18.
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Bond Trader 2006
- Thread starter johnpinochet
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Short 2 ZB's at 112 16.
All NN's are in agreement.
Keep in mind the head fakes.
Without fail you could have blindly bought and sold off of the numbers and been better off.
All NN's are in agreement.
Keep in mind the head fakes.
Without fail you could have blindly bought and sold off of the numbers and been better off.
My time stamp on my sale is 0850. I was posting while order was pending.
What I mean by "better off" is that you would probably have been better off throwing out all indicators for the last 2 weeks and simply bought and sold off of my published numbers, disregarding any other information posted by me, other than my single pre-market analysis post.
What I mean by "better off" is that you would probably have been better off throwing out all indicators for the last 2 weeks and simply bought and sold off of my published numbers, disregarding any other information posted by me, other than my single pre-market analysis post.
Ah, perhaps I'm being a little harsh on myself. Technically last week you made excellent money on everything I posted. This week, has been frustrating, as I want to bust out of this range.
By the way, my published target is 112 07 for 1/2 off.
A pivot number for today is 112 01. That might be a nice secondary target.
Remember, never let prices trade back up to your entry.
By the way, my published target is 112 07 for 1/2 off.
A pivot number for today is 112 01. That might be a nice secondary target.
Remember, never let prices trade back up to your entry.
Out with 1 tick X 2 profit. Price was coming back to my entry. Had to get out.
Head fakes again.
I think I'll call it a day.
Head fakes again.
I think I'll call it a day.
Pre-market commentary 03 February 2006
Interesting comment from Briefing.com from a trader they interviewed:
"...
Some say "the long-end has completely disassociated itself from reality," by not moving lower & "just ignoring the Fed," notes one long-time dealer. Although he acknowledges "it may just be a whole new game, but we can't be propped up by foreign flows forever."
..."
My sentiments exactly. We must remember though, despite what we think, price activity makes up its own mind.
For today, as for the last week and change, I have no new calculations to make. See market commentary from 26 January 2006.
Today we have a huge, high impact report:
Employment Situation at 0730 CST
If the above report doesn't move the market 1 point and change, I don't know what will.
I've been pointing out the range from 113 01 to 112 10 - 112 12 for the last week. When will it stop? Maybe today. Remember what I said yesterday? You could have blindly bought and sold off of the numbers for the past 5 days and made a killing on one contract.
I've decided to finish off my second week of market commentary by stepping up to the plate. I'm going to go out on a limb here, and like the sherrif, played by Bruce Willis in the movie "Hostage", I'm going to tell you, that yes...I am the guy.
On that note, here is what I think will happen today:
1) The market will make a big 1 point move, one way or the other. The market has been pent up for roughly 4 - 5 days. We are due for a trend day.
2) I would be cautious about counting on a short at 113 01 or a buy at 112 12 - 112 07 immediately after the report. I think if we reach either level, especially immediately after the report, i.e. 0730 - 0735 CST, that we will go through to at least the first price projection beyond each number. This especially holds true if we are somewhere around 112 21 pre-report. If on the other hand the market is driven to either the range low or high prior to the report, then disregard. That type of pre-report activity could be a head fake move to drive out the weak hands prior to report release and then a reversal.
3) Whether the report comes in below expectations, above expectations or somewhere in between doesn't matter. Expect the unexpected. Of all the days to NOT have a position on prior to a report, this would be the one.
4) Your best course of action is to simply wait 15 to 20 minutes after the report and go in the direction of the trend at a good price, i.e. pullback if in an uptrend and vice versa.
High Risk:
I may do this, I may not. Pre-report I may set up bracket trades at the high end and the low end. I'll have an automatic profit target set at the next price projection number after 113 01 and after 112 12 - 112 07. I'll have my finger on the trigger to take profits sooner if necessary.
Finally, I'll be posting certain key price projections for today that I've been holding back. These projections will be based on a full spike move to the upside or the downside right at report release. Even if the number isn't hit immediately, within minutes, usually at some point in the day, if it is going to be a full point move, the numbers will be hit.
More to come later.
Interesting comment from Briefing.com from a trader they interviewed:
"...
Some say "the long-end has completely disassociated itself from reality," by not moving lower & "just ignoring the Fed," notes one long-time dealer. Although he acknowledges "it may just be a whole new game, but we can't be propped up by foreign flows forever."
..."
My sentiments exactly. We must remember though, despite what we think, price activity makes up its own mind.
For today, as for the last week and change, I have no new calculations to make. See market commentary from 26 January 2006.
Today we have a huge, high impact report:
Employment Situation at 0730 CST
If the above report doesn't move the market 1 point and change, I don't know what will.
I've been pointing out the range from 113 01 to 112 10 - 112 12 for the last week. When will it stop? Maybe today. Remember what I said yesterday? You could have blindly bought and sold off of the numbers for the past 5 days and made a killing on one contract.
I've decided to finish off my second week of market commentary by stepping up to the plate. I'm going to go out on a limb here, and like the sherrif, played by Bruce Willis in the movie "Hostage", I'm going to tell you, that yes...I am the guy.
On that note, here is what I think will happen today:
1) The market will make a big 1 point move, one way or the other. The market has been pent up for roughly 4 - 5 days. We are due for a trend day.
2) I would be cautious about counting on a short at 113 01 or a buy at 112 12 - 112 07 immediately after the report. I think if we reach either level, especially immediately after the report, i.e. 0730 - 0735 CST, that we will go through to at least the first price projection beyond each number. This especially holds true if we are somewhere around 112 21 pre-report. If on the other hand the market is driven to either the range low or high prior to the report, then disregard. That type of pre-report activity could be a head fake move to drive out the weak hands prior to report release and then a reversal.
3) Whether the report comes in below expectations, above expectations or somewhere in between doesn't matter. Expect the unexpected. Of all the days to NOT have a position on prior to a report, this would be the one.
4) Your best course of action is to simply wait 15 to 20 minutes after the report and go in the direction of the trend at a good price, i.e. pullback if in an uptrend and vice versa.
High Risk:
I may do this, I may not. Pre-report I may set up bracket trades at the high end and the low end. I'll have an automatic profit target set at the next price projection number after 113 01 and after 112 12 - 112 07. I'll have my finger on the trigger to take profits sooner if necessary.
Finally, I'll be posting certain key price projections for today that I've been holding back. These projections will be based on a full spike move to the upside or the downside right at report release. Even if the number isn't hit immediately, within minutes, usually at some point in the day, if it is going to be a full point move, the numbers will be hit.
More to come later.
Pre-market continued:
Just in case you've forgotten, here are my price projection numbers published days ago:
113 10
113 01
112 21
112 07
For the outliers, I must go with two numbers for the extreme high and two numbers for the extreme low as the rate of occurence in my calculations for all four numbers is significant.
Outlier high:
113 22
113 16
Outlier low:
111 30
111 24
Finally, the special numbers you've been waiting for. I call these, spike numbers. They are based on algorithms similar to the above price projection numbers, BUT they are important stopping points on a major price move up or a price move down. Keep in mind that in the event of strong market movement, they are merely temporary stopping points.
On the down side:
111 18
And on the up side:
113 24
Watch price activity at the above spike numbers.
Good for today only!
Just in case you've forgotten, here are my price projection numbers published days ago:
113 10
113 01
112 21
112 07
For the outliers, I must go with two numbers for the extreme high and two numbers for the extreme low as the rate of occurence in my calculations for all four numbers is significant.
Outlier high:
113 22
113 16
Outlier low:
111 30
111 24
Finally, the special numbers you've been waiting for. I call these, spike numbers. They are based on algorithms similar to the above price projection numbers, BUT they are important stopping points on a major price move up or a price move down. Keep in mind that in the event of strong market movement, they are merely temporary stopping points.
On the down side:
111 18
And on the up side:
113 24
Watch price activity at the above spike numbers.
Good for today only!
Excellent bracket trade to upside! Coudn't take it. Watch downside!
How 'bout them price projection numbers!!!!!!
How 'bout them price projection numbers!!!!!!
If you haven't gone short, you may get a second chance between 112 21 and 112 23.
I'm counting on a re-test of lows.
Amazing action today!
Anyone have the "oomph" to sell at 113 10? Just curious. I did not.
I couldn't take my bracket trade of buying at 113 01 and selling at 113 10 due to unforseen circumstances calling me away from screen.
I'm counting on a re-test of lows.
Amazing action today!
Anyone have the "oomph" to sell at 113 10? Just curious. I did not.
I couldn't take my bracket trade of buying at 113 01 and selling at 113 10 due to unforseen circumstances calling me away from screen.
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