Bond Trader 2006

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Short 1 ZB 110 15.

Unexpected buy strength today. This trade may be short lived and I may reverse. We need to re-visit 110 10 at a minimum for me to maintain my short bias.

If you are glued to a short bias today, your absolute clue that everything has changed is a break above 110 21. My stop is much tighter than that on this trade, but bottom line, a break above that number means a run on stops and you need to take a "break" as well.
 
I took myself out at 110 17.

OK, this is a wake up call to not take shorting forgranted today. The ideal short trade did not occur. We may still have a short opportunity later but the easy money is gone. Now you actually have to think through what to do next.

By the way, had you shorted way early, i.e. 110 08 or 110 10, your signal to exit the trade was the 0745 3 minute bar where prices hit 110 16. You could have gotten out on the next bar at 110 15 or better and re-evaluated your trade. Save this observation for future reference.
 
0753 CST

I'm short at 110 30 since roughly 0700 this AM. I kind of wish I had gotten out at 110 27 as the trade on the 3 min to 5 min looks to be 50:50 either way. On the 30 min, it looks like a great trade still. I may sit tight for another 60 minutes.

0755 Redbook coming up. Shouldn't do anything but you never know.
 
It looks like we may test 110 25 again. My target for this trade is 110 22.

Next time to watch is 0900 for 2 reports that once again should not influence us too much today, Leading Indicators and State Street.
 
Out at 110 24. Close enough. Done for day.

FWIW, my 30 min NN indicates still more downside. One way to look at this is to sell at a higher price. That would be a standard text book trade according to this journal. Of course the other way to look at this is that I, the creator of the model, am taking the easy 6 tick trade and calling it a day.
 
Out at 109 13....waiting....no bias.

No brainer trade was short at 109 11 to 109 12. Once we broke 109 14 and higher, you must get out and re-evaluate, even if only to go short again.
 
This doesn't count as it is after the fact and I didn't take the trade and I would not have taken the trade...BUT... a third number I have that I neglected to post is

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109 7/32

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